Friday, February 10, 2012

Friday S&P500 Chart (TVIX)

5 min ES
 The strength of bonds throughout last evening and night kept sustained pressure on equity bids pushing the ES through yesterday's lows at around 23:00hrs eventually finding a bottom this morning @ tuesday's sticky support level of 1334.

You might be wondering about the spike in VIX and what it means..I think the answer is a bit less complicated than you think....

 Lets just say PM's were adding protection against their holdings which greatly appreciated in value the last 40 days or so. Would you not protect if you were them? When you have to protect a large portfolio with gains you need to desperately lock in, you gotta buy a lot of protection....  The vol spike near last hour as the ES came into test lows was obviously caused put buying (because index's did not make a new low) or perhaps instruments squeezing such as TVIX perpetuated the move triggering shorts over the 19 and 20 level.

In my opinion given the price action in some of the larger tech names as well as XOM into the close suggested (the hated) dip buyers stepping back in for a possible up swing next week.
Crude remained firm closing out the cash session @ 99.05..... NO panic there....

The index's saw the vol pop a lot were looking for all while the index's did not manage to push down more than 1% for any period of time worth mentioning today..

Now that we regained 1340 with almost 80k contracts trading in the last 5 minutes the question arises what will sunday look like?