Sunday, May 31, 2009

Reports: GM filing for bankruptcy Monday morning.

GM appears to be on track to file for Bankruptcy at 8 a.m. tomorrow. It was only a matter of time, most people who understood the gravity of GM's situation knew it was a dying enterprise from the time it . Karl Denninger's blog The Market Ticker has a good breakdown of the ramifications this will bring, specifically the bondholders will be wiped out. Obviously the suppliers who have been struggling with GM for over a year now are not going to be paid on current orders along the supply chain. Who knows what this will bring market wise, hell it could already be baked in. IF that is the case we will probably be flat monday. If it is not the case this thing is going to .30c PPS, traders will rip it apart.. IF they can get their hands on shares, it is on the hard to borrow list. My thought process is currently in a bearish overall cycle and believe this is bad for the markets, because mom and pop are going to sell, they were naive enough to believe this would never happen. Maybe word of the BK got out late friday, causing a massive short position to puked up, possibly because they were banking on a worse scenario in regards to GM. Tomorrow will tell.

Friday, May 29, 2009

GM is now a penny stock, much thanks to the UAW

you have it folks, GM has traded below 1 dollar PPS. How sad this story has become. UAW is to blame I believe, their shotty workman ship produced shitty cars for years, now it is coming back to haunt them. The UAW doesnt care they just kept demaning more and more benefits, more money more buyouts... Do they not understand you cannot opperate a business if the expenses of the business are higher than the revenue? I doubt they understood this, if they did they probably would all still have job security. rant over.

Thursday, May 28, 2009

Dovetailing from yesterday's chatter on inflation, highlighted by Marc Faber

Marc Faber said yesterday:

May 27 (Bloomberg) — The U.S. economy will enter “hyperinflation” approaching the levels in Zimbabwe because the Federal Reserve will be reluctant to raise interest rates, investor Marc Faber said.

Prices may increase at rates “close to” Zimbabwe’s gains, Faber said in an interview with Bloomberg Television in Hong Kong. Zimbabwe’s inflation rate reached 231 million percent in July, the last annual rate published by the statistics office.

“I am 100 percent sure that the U.S. will go into hyperinflation,” Faber said.

Yesterday I posted on how we are on track for Zimbabwe type inflation, it looks like others are on the same thought lines. ZeroHedge pointed this article out, so props to you Tyler.

As far as the market goes today, there is quite a bit of volatility going around intra day. We swung from positive to negative to close up over 100 points, blah. No of this daily gyration means anything to me until we break down away from the trend line or break out of the downward channel to the upside. My only trade today was shorting the SPY at its days high, covering for about a .90c profit. Take it, move on.

Wednesday, May 27, 2009

Run it back Wednesday, vix spike! Hyper-inflation coming!

I think today was supposed to be yesterday, given the . The market is back to is old tricks, market down/commodities up. Yesterday I talked a bit about how the instiutions were selling into the propped up market, looks like i was right. The imaginary mom & pop buyers who are buying into this wonderful market, as the government wants us to thingk, were not there today to save the day, no buy programs today. Market falls. whala.
Did any of you out there realize on of the best plays for 2008 was Dollar Tree, McDonalds ran game also. These plays always work in a recession, people buy cheap food. How many dollars will it take to buy a 6 piece chicken mcnugget with hyperinflation? Should we ask Zimbabwee, Dr. Doom thinks so?

Chart wise we are back in the meaty power zone of the channel, chart here. Yesterday was a big test of resistance, if we would have pushed higher and broke out today, i would have thrown a fit like Macke. But we didn't, my faith was restored. My trade idea for the near term is start getting short, if you are not short already start dabbling, if you are long you are greedy. REMEMBER take profits when they are there, they evaporate oh so fast on paper.

Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Vix volatility update, "Turn the machines back on!"

Well, damn ill admit yesterday was quite the surprise to me, i should have seen it coming. HA
"Wouldacouldashould" is trading jargon for a trade you look back in hindsight and say "if only", screw that garbage. Only dwell on a thought like this for 30 seconds, if you dwell longer you will never let it go.

My theory today, which Zero Hedge dovetailed on, is one of manipulation. Manipulation cloaked in the the guise of a positive outlook, 3% for this please. MOre likely than not institutions are selling into this propped up market. WE are at the top of the channel, either we break out or break down, something is going to happen and my guess is we mind the channel. Based on three puzzle pieces.
1. The vix is in a neutral trading pattern, but is very oversold. WE are near the breakout zone, ie nearer to the two green lines imminent intersection on the right.
2.The bulls are simply tired. Why are they tired? a. "They" the bulls are actually buy programs, not mom and pop buying up the market because the government splitting the dollar 2:1! TURN THE THE MACHINES BACK ON
3. Bank of America was down today. Why? a. Gordon Gekko is selling all the shares into the pop from it's recent UPGRADE.

As for Google, i have posted charts of google in the past, basically showing a megaphone pattern formation, with google minding the channel. Past charts HERE & HERE. As you may all know already i do not make many "calls" i tend to focus on the general market as a whole, but i did highlight an entry point on google around 370 with a target of 415 intermediate term. It looks like we are still on target, we will see how close we come to 600PPS. IF the market takes a dive, it looks like we are heading down below the mid line of the channel, in that case i will set a new target of 330PPS.

DO technical levels coincide with sentiment changes in the macro media? you be the judge.

I hope the home gamers out there are following the game being played by the media. Whats the name of the game you ask? "lets change sentiment at key reversal levels". How's that for a game? According to google, if you search "stock market collapse" you get 5.4 million results, if you search market rebound you get 1.2 million results. Just a little fun with google, but this shows there is still a great deal of thinking on the bearish side of the bridge. If you watch cnbc tomorrow i bet you will notice a bearish overall tone. Is this because the players who run the show over at cnbc know we are at a key reversal level, specifically on the SPX? More chance than not they do understand this but they have a short memory over there. I am not going to single out cnbc as the sole source of the bs i believe Macke was talking about in his rant, every popular market related media source cheer leads the market up and down. Is this bad? i think no, but once again everyone should be made aware of these occurrences. Some of you out there might think this is a bit obvious but you would be suprised how many people simply do not understand the art of stock market operation. It takes a market to make a market. If you look at the chart of the SPX i posted last week, you will see we are now at the upper limit of the down trending channel, when did the media start pushing out stories about the rally being a bear rally, not the real thing, there are still problems yada yada..real answer is, when we started testing these levels. we have come to far to fast, let see how this week plays out.

Friday, May 22, 2009

The bear's are back, not even Oprah can save us now

The bear's won the battle this week. I believe the mom & pop market participants are getting tired of defending the upper boundary of the downward primary channel. My guess is and i do not know this, but many market participants are looking at a chart strikingly similar to the ones above. We have been in the process of topping in this rallying across the channel. THe rally being in the form of a rising bear wedge, highlighted in black. The PPS broke down out of the wedge following the channel closely in consolidation. Psychology takes hold here on the public because the market hasn't dropped substantially yet, IE there are still suckers the hedgie's can sell into. My guess is the shorts are in place, and now its up to the media to change the sentiment and bring this bad boy down. Maybe Oprah can help?
--Money trend analysis here.
Have a safe weekend.

Thursday, May 21, 2009

Jeff Macke has gone crazy! Out of CNBC?