Thursday, December 31, 2009

My new years resolution: no more stupid trades

You know... those trades you regret the second you put them on. STUPID TRADES.. Non pre meditated trades are those which cost you dearly, or hell any trade which you made out of boredom or revenge etc. Think how much money you can save by cutting down on the number of non 3-5 star trades, transaction costs are diminished thus profits are increased. Applying this resolution is much harder than inexplanation i know... but the resolutions simplicity is unmatched by anything else you can do to help step up your game in 2010. I know i can save thousands of dollars if i cut back on manufacturing trades, i gotta quit cold turkey. so do you.

Tuesday, December 29, 2009

Where we stand on the S&P. Weekly chart

I guess the least i could say is: Draw your own conclusions. We are clearly overbought along with resting just above(arguable) longterm resistance. The 2010 media spin will be a factor determining continuation or reversal. Sideways? if volume stays dry yes.

Fundamentals will matter - 2010 commodity market outlook

Giddy up.

Monday, December 21, 2009

Google @ 600, im taking her off. (GOOG)

The one long term trade i have had on this year is long Google, i initiated the trade after i noticed an interesting trading pattern developing, the "megaphone". The pattern is bullish given the context in my opinion, as it forms the price swings become larger and larger. In Google's case the swings were large at first but then the price stuck up around the upper channel Resistance. The NASDAQ at Google's back surely helped keep it bid. Google's pattern probably is not finished, though it has reached the "unattainable" target of 600 set back in early May. Maybe Google is just as good a market barometer as GS and JPM? 

Holiday trading.. take foot off THE gas! (aapl)

Holiday trading can present a lot of faux trading opportunities, if looks could kill you would be dead. I say this because lots of stocks may look great on a chart but the reality of the trade is volume is not there to support prices. You got the psychology behind the holidays affecting your trading, you might be more apt to make larger bets if the market "seems" to be performing per your trading plan because you are in a festive mood? But in reality its all an illusion, the futures are painted up in the pre market because of the slim participation causing the cash market to push higher. This is exactly what has happened today, they push the futures up on absolutely crap volume, "Santa Clause rally', gag me. I am just so tired of the charade, let the damn market correct so we can get this show on the road. If this market corrects i will become confident in the US stock market, if it does not i will always remain skeptical. Maybe i feel this way because as soon as i go long something will blow up causing the markets to collapse and im caught holding the bag of shit? This is far fetched but a lot of my colleagues share the same thoughts.

Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Did the canary just drop dead? Whitney just spoke

FIRST: Whitney's cautious comments on Bank of America sent the market into a dive, regardless of what CNBC might have to say. If this were last year she would have been live on the air.

It looks like someone might have have suspected this wave of secondaries now as all the major banks have paid and or are pledging to pay back TARP. Given GS's15% fall from its 52week high along with BAC and C's recent weakness someone knew the gig was about up. I believe not all banks repaying TARP are nearly ready, but they are playing follow the leader. A whole new systemic risk could be in the making. It looks like all the funds are done chasing GS just to say they had her on the books as the the printing presses are in full force, it sure does not look like much is going to be done about the dilution. Screw the shareholders but save the algo's!. Since it is the algo's keeping these POS's afloat why not dilute? Anyway this is all beside the point..

The point of this ramble is: What are the financials failing to make 52week highs telling you? It tells me the canary is slowly dieing. It should be telling you to approach trades with a clear exit plan if things are to get crazy in the near future. Call me crazy but there are quite a few strange disconnects lately complicating an already complicated tape. , , dollar up. all WHILE the ES is making 52 highs...

The root of the disconnect i do truly believe is a weakening carry trade, i do not know how long the dollar will continue its march higher but until it retreats we are going to see further volatility. This volatility i hope will make for an interesting first few months of 2010. Wow i cannot believe it is 2010... Anyway, the markets have clearly shed quite a bit of volume lately, making our daily ranges unbearably boring and flat. These environments i feel are best traded lightly as thin volume always makes for interesting price spikes.

Most of you know i use Golden Slacks as my canary, she really took it on the nose Tuesday 12/19/09, looks like even the buy the low tick program could not stop selling. The volume did not impress me, though selling under the daily VWAP did. Keep you're eyes peeled coming into this new year, the market can very well go ape shit just as you get your Christmas Pajama's on. So be ready, we saw how Thanksgiving turned out.

Friday, December 11, 2009

The post gap trade (TXN)

There have been quite a few stocks gapping up or down which exhibit similar trends post gap. It has taken me a good deal of time to really understand the mechanics behind why almost every relatively high beta stock trades flat after a gap. I could be totally wrong but at least i have convinced myself this is what is happening so i can avoid the undue stress of a non performing trade!

Monday, December 7, 2009

The trend was your friend....(USD)

Anyone who has been actively trading the past few months probably has noticed a few peculiar occurrences. The USD/Equities correlation has been running the show for months causing added intra day volatility when anyone speaks about currency. A great example of a correlation beginning to move markets separately is GOLD. One can argue the dollar moves gold, thus equities follow the lead of the dollar.. but i have been noticing disconnects intra day, ABX will start selling before gold spot, then you will u will see the dollar catch hold, THEN equities fall on higher red volume than green. This is telling me the dollar carry trade is starting to loose its iron grip, or is it not? Where does trend come in? Well, stock or ETF's cannot keep a trend intra day for the whole day, it will flip flop two or three times, making intra day swing trading damn near impossible.

Thursday, December 3, 2009

The biggest moves happen when you least expect (BAC)

IF you follow my ramblings on Stocktwits you probably hear me say, "the biggest moves happen when you least expect" after the market seemingly moves out of nowhere. Lets face it when we expect a macro move of the markets it usually does not happen on "our" clock, the market makes the decision. Today's out of nowhere catching many participants off guard, creating a nice bearish feel. GS breaking lows every 30 minutes should tell you to get out of the way, *they are bringing in the market, IE we are getting out before YOU. Clearly there were rumors running around surrounding , looks like SAC capital made a good trade. Lockin' in those profits.

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