Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Thursday Evening Crude Chart update

Today's roller coaster session took us from over 108 to below 105.. 107 appears to be a rather sticky.. over CL seems strong.. below.. well weak. The chart below highlights a H&S should formed over the yellow 1 hour up trend.. once 108.40 broke on the right shoulder the rest was history.
30 min zoom CL 

Bonds down Dollar down Equities Clown Down - SPX

15 min ES. Notice light blue dashed line. held. WICK though. 
 Two things happend today which should stand out in your mind.

1. Bonds broke down with equities

2. S&P & NDX took out previous day lows

@ US Dollar futures reared their ugly head instantly sending the commodity complex sharply lower. Gold and silver saw the greatest sustained selling pressure, gold was off 100 points from opening prices at it's worst level..eventually basing around 1690 (i like it long over 1700 into tomorrow)... Silver also fell considerably. I am in the camp silver finds a bid into thursday as well

NQ highlight of chart price action
Equity index's also gave a clear sell signals shortly after dollar began rising, what i noticed was a simple chart breakdown and some funky quotes. The violence at which NDX reversed after failing to make a new high over 2645.25 was my first signal. The second signal was the break of 2635. By this point, apple HPQ (weak all day) and AMZN were already nearing lows; thus i lift the the offer on the 1 strike OTM NDX put. 

The hedge worked as the NDX fell below 2625.  I alerted on twitter numerous times, as well as in the live forum i moderate; i am adding

I added calls in both SPX and NDX in the final minutes of the extended cash session after paper pushed the ES down 10 handles on the close. The calls are weekly and premium risk is minimal. 

105.50 level eventually finding a bid @ 104.84. This level eventually became the head of an inverse H&S. shoulders being 105.75.. the price lifted out of the right shoulder into 106's forming a consolidation pattern before the a squeeze into floor close sent prices over 107.10.  

5 min zoomed ES.. notice reaction to
light blue line b4 Afternoon sell off
What i have found with CL, especially on days where volatility is high in the morning; crude will rally into pit close as traders cover their positions. This works on the opposite side as well, crude up strong into the morning hours, pit close could see profit taking.

30 year bonds Show volatility & TBT rallies

TBT broke a 1 hour downtrend fairly violently. i have been looking for this to happens since monday, patience paid. ZB (30 year) traded down to 141'03 from a ledge of 142'16.
1 hour TBT

Pre Market Look at the S&P Futures -

5 min ES
The Dow Jones industrial average closed over the 13,000 level Tuesday for the first time since summer of 2008, though profit taking ahead of US cash session open indicates a open below 13,000.

The S&P and Nasdaq futures are indicating a slightly higher open (+.15%) this morning as the ECB promised more liquidity to their members. 

More specifically the ECB will lend 800 financial institutions 529.5 billion euros ($712 billion) over a there year period.

In reaction to the ECB liquidity injection Eurodollar futures are slightly down to the 1.344 level after a roller coaster overnight session with a high being 1.3487. The DAX and the CAC both rose half a percent in European trading, Asian exchanges are also green in reaction to US and European futures.

5 min NQ 
Commodity markets showed risk is bid once again overnight following the equity index's lead, with crude oil futures regaining quite a bit of ground lost yesterday afternoon; trading as high as 107.40 before relenting a bit.

Both gold and silver reacted to the ECB news, whipsawing up and down; gold rallied into 1792.2 before finding footing around the 1788 level.

Federal reserve chairman Ben Bernanke will deliver a semi-annual testimony on monetary policy and the outlook for the US economy today from Washington. Mr. Bernanke's testimony is sure to inject a bit of volatility into the index's based on past testimony's from the reserve chairman. 

In stock specific news, Apple computers is trading in the pre market at a new all time as high of 541 in anticipation of the iPad 3 launch. First Solar, maker of solar panels shares are down 7% to 33.60 as the company reported less than stellar results yesterday after the bell.

Copper Acting Out This Tuesday Morning

Post break down in commodities and equities Copper chart below.. notice how it held the bullish break out support/level for 3.80x
5 min HG
This post is an update to a post on copper from the 20th of Feb. 
Daily HG (copper)
As you can see from the chart copper broke out of a wedge around the 9th of January and continued its bull run almost to 4 dollars before coming under pressure as China growth worries came into play.

Now that the .80 level i highlighted previously has been broken, momentum carried HG into the 3.949 level. Over the 4 dollar level would mean copper is at it's highest price since mid october 2011.

This morning copper futures are up .7% on above average volume as stabilization in Europe continues and China still consumes.

15 min HG

Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Quick look at YM (Mini Dow Futures)

coiled up fairly tight under 13011-
daily YM
1 hour YM

Post Cash Close S&P500 Futures Chart

15 min ES
WE closed under the pre market high of 1373.75 though so far we are over 1370. A level we have NOT closed over in a year. Nasdaq continued her break out into the 2630 zone.  2635 ist he high. I am looking at the light blue dotted uptrending line which continues from last sunday; as support. Below the line we have to look back at 1366 as support.

 If you remember earlier today i highlighted an inverse H&S in the ES, the head was slightly below 1365 - 1364.75 to be exact. Yesterday and last thursday the NQ exhibited similar trading programs which resulted in a very tradeable trend.  DOW futures are still 5 points under 13000 as of this article, though pre market it traded 13023.

TLT 5 min.. notice the trend break late into session today
Bonds showed weakness into the close after nearly a week of gains in the face of a declining dollar, which is on year lows 78.23..

I am looking for TLT to break down below 118 and test the 115 again again, perhaps by thursday or friday.

Mid morning S&P 500 Futures Look. Post noise of CC

looking like 1375 is in the cards if 137.50 can hold.. Below 1369 could trigger some stumbling sell orders..
1 min ES

Post Feburary Consumer Confidence S&P Futures Look

You can see the inverse H&S develop pre CC # with the head being down under 1365.  Overnight high is 1373.75, could be tested easily if momentum continues as over 60k ES contracts traded up into 1371.50.  Thus far the consumer confidence print has been faded ES is still unchanged.

The nasdaq is much stronger than the ES with apple leading the way. Thus if apple turns around, the whole market will unless.. amzn goog msft decide to bid up apple's slack. 
1 min ES post Consumer confidence - whole move faded thus far

Monday, February 27, 2012

10 year look at the QQQ's

This post references "The Q's" post from last week.  self explanatory.
. QQQ's ... notice volumes today have seen so far this month are equal to november of 2000. 
Something will give. Either a negative catalyst will provide the volume surge.. OR a spark from the federal reserve and or central banks will ignite upside.
Monthly 5 year horizon QQQ.. this pattern prior to break out over 60 was extremely bullish. now question is continue or  retest 61-60 area..  

Gasoline Futures doubled since Bush Left Office

4 year look. X marks nov 2008. and nov 2009 .. printing presses have increased commodity prices. yes.
6 year RBOB futures.

Post 15 min Trend Break CL update

CL is very technical.. that being said the move from 95 to 109 has been very technical following a easily spotted and tradable trend. this trend broke. below is what happend. Could see another point or so come out. strategic oil reserve release grumblings as well.
5 min . NOtice yellow dashed line failure. and no reversal . like last thursday.. 
30 min trend

stockmonster trade thoughts from this morning -

SM forum - Eastern time- 
Quick snippet of this mornings trading thoughts over in the stockmonster forum. Highlighted long idea around 2588. NQ trading 2610's. New 12 year high

Looking for NQ 2510
ES 1365

Nasdaq currently. -
Current NQ- POST inverse H&S revelation

Monday Crude Oil Futures Update

4 hour CL
The trend is your friend.. until it is not. So far the 15 min an 4 hour CL trend is still holding.. Though exercise caution up here above the yellow dashed uptrending line.. Below 108.30 i will perk up..  below 108 i will be very cautious and think about downside protection..

Lots of upside momentum is built and can reverse quickly. Last couple times (red X's below yellow line) CL broke the trend it was violent though the price quickly moved back over the line.

We are so close to highs in CL it seems we might test them, over 114. Earlier in 2011 CL ran from 90's to 114 no red candles on a daily.

5 min CL

Nasdaq initial weakness bought - Similar to Thursday

3:14pm update - Sure enough. Thursday gave a good look on today. NQ traded up out of the H&S. broke over 2597 and mounted 2600, highs being 2615.75. 
5 min 
Today's price action nearly 100% identical to this past thursday.. Came off hard as cash opened.. then a solid bid found and straight up. Inverse H&S on the nasdaq. Looking for 2597 a test.. then perhaps regain 2600.. Friday was a record high for the nasdaq going back over 11 years.
5 min NQ

Friday, February 24, 2012

The Q's

As of March 20, 2012- we highlighted this break out originally on Feb 24th. 
10 year Q's - QQQ formerly the QQQQ
10 year Q's - QQQ formerly QQQQ

Thursday, February 23, 2012

1's and 2's - A 20 year look at the SPY

i spy a few patterns. 

Nasdaq Composite Trades into 11 year highs

12 year Nasdaq composite 
Last time the nasdaq was up here was mid november 2000. Pretty much means we trade into 3k based on momentum.

Post breach of 107 CL 1hour Look -

1 hour CL 
Post breach of 108.50 CL.. clearly the buyer is determined.. how determined.. time will tell.. just keep eyes on the lines and dont try to out smart it.

A peek inside stockMONSTER

We are market narrators, we do not hold your hand. But we do give out actionable and pertinent market color when you need it the most.   no BS.

[09:48:08] evan_: i dont recommend shorting the market out right

[09:48:29] evan_: what makes today any different from the other days where we rally after a morning low.. and this mornings low is pretty violent

[09:50:43] xxxx_: DNDN getting ready for  another punch higher
[09:52:28] evan_: watching spy here for a bounce

Stop by and say hello 

Nasdaq reverses on massive volume

again the 2600 level is back in play.. over 2600.50 could bring a rush of covering/buying/squeezing/crying/laughing

15 min NQ

Thursday Morning S&P500 Futures Look

another wishy washy overnight session trading on the same prices.. NQ leading the weakness. Notice how the ES reacted very negatively around 4 am to the downtrending red line in place from sundays gap up. Lines only extended no re drawn.
5 min ES 

Tuesday, February 21, 2012

15 min S&P Look -

15 min ES 
for what it's worth.   obviously be careful with your longs if we get under cash session lows. Over 1363 i get a bit bullish into 1365.. The real ticking time bomb is the NQ's imo.. 2600 in sights. over lots of momo could build/squeeze.

Copper has broken its 15 min down trend.. it cleared the 3.80 i mentioned lastnight as a bullish pinch level.
30 min HG

Nasdaq 4 hour trend update

4 hour zoomed - 30 min inset -

The chart to the right shows a channel created over the last 2 months. The only blips in trend have been in the last week.

The NDX is acting as if 2600 is the boogy man BUT every dip into the lower trend support has been bought with conviction.

That being said if the lower trend channel fails there is a lot of air.. if 2600 is mounted and held.. 2620+ could be in the cards, especially if apple decides to run into 550.

AAPL 4 hour.  zoom 

Post Greece bailout S&P500 Futures Look

5 min ES
Looking back to my S&P post from earlier today i mentioned the spooz needed to climb over 1365 to convert into a test of 1370's. This, of course, did not happen and the price failed into the Thursday's closing 1354.75-1355 area.... 1355's were bought and we bounced into 1360. 1360.50 is where the spooz sits as i type.

 Today's trough to trough (open to close) range was 2nd largest in almost 2 months & the vix barely moved over 18.50 (18.19 closing price). This explains a lot of the complacency on either side of the market. Bulls or bears are still locked up waiting for the official to tell the to back up and fight. For the last month any upside breech's of highs made during AH globex have been promptly sold off during the cash session. Though any sell off during cash is mitigated by the end of the day.

30 min ES. Complacent pattern 
 This pattern cannot go on forever but will remain in place until the large cap index components start breaking into new territory. Tech led the last 3 month move (out performing the S&Ps on a % basis) and has failed to make a new high with the S&P's. 

Perhaps the NDX is being held back in hopes the S&P's will catch up and profits/new positions can be established in the likes of ...IE apple amazon and google; which have struggled with their footing each and every time mother index (NDX) reached 2600. 

1 min NQ (nasdaq future)
I made 1 trade today. I added NDX 2650 calls and SPX 1380 calls with underlying @ 2576. What caused me to arrive at this decision to trade?.. the way the NQ's reacted off 2574.5. 

Iran worry and Greece summation pushed crude oil over 106$ a bbl. 

Yes is an issue.. but.. In October of 2008 CL high was 95 a BBL. with the S&P's trading between 1492 - 1586; the DX was trading at the nearly the exact same level then as today; the 30 year around 115. 

CL has a bit of room to run without hampering equities..  

Mid day S&P500 Futures Look

Not a whole lot to report .. but we did get the standard 2012 trade, quick sell off open then rally back to opening range. The low for cash is 1358.5 high being 1365... we need to get over 1365 to covert into a test of 1367-1370 range.. 1374 is a big level.. What might give the index's the UMPH they need to achieve new prices is upside participation from most of the beta names and a continued bond break down..
5 min ES
Notice the convergence of a few lines @ 1364.. coinciding with 2696 in the NQ.  

2600 is a bigger level than DOW 13000 mind you

Fairly Bullish Volume/price action in Apple Today

Notice the increase in volume as apple trades higher.. especially through 512 and 513... 520 could be easily in the cards by afternoon.. Could push NDX into 2605+ .. IF IF IF.. the current trend holds in the index's. Need more cash to flush out of bonds..
1 min aapl

Monday, February 20, 2012

ES and EURO levitating on Greece Bailout Deal

Euro zone reaches deal on second Greek bailout package (130 billion euro....)

S&P500 Futures Look For This Evening

drip drip drip.. wait wait wait.. . 1365 has a lot of mass as does 1360...... 1360 will close the gap. Copper strong. DX strong.. over 79.20 ... currently 79.30
5 min ES

Copper Acting Out This Monday Evening

 4 hour zoomed HG (copper Future)
clearly HG has bounced off up-trending support dawn from the 12.19.  If this trend holds it could mean a briskly paced march into the 4 level...

BUT before we get excited about a test of the 4$ level we gotta look at copper on a 5-1hour time frame.. Below you can see the consolidation/wedge pattern develop over a period of days. HG needs to get over 3.80, hold and move higher for a clean pattern upside break out.. if not we pivot back into 3.75ish... copper and china are largely correlated. as you know.
15 min HG

Nasdaq Closes Sunday evening Gap As Phantom Market Opens

1 min volume
Yeah.. i dunno what to make of it either.. I guess someone did not get the memo US is closed... During a norma NQ open (market actually open, not closed) we normally see 4-7k contracts trade.. Today 1300 traded were knocking the NQ loose for over 10 handles. carry on.
5 min NQ_F .. The red candle printed @ exactly 9:30 eastern. 

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