Today's roller coaster session took us from over 108 to below 105.. 107 appears to be a rather sticky.. over CL seems strong.. below.. well weak. The chart below highlights a H&S should formed over the yellow 1 hour up trend.. once 108.40 broke on the right shoulder the rest was history.

30 min zoom CL

15 min ES. Notice light blue dashed line. held. WICK though.

 Two things happend today which should stand out in your mind.


1. Bonds broke down with equities


2. S&P & NDX took out previous day lows


@ US Dollar futures reared their ugly head instantly sending the commodity complex sharply lower. Gold and silver saw the greatest sustained selling pressure, gold was off 100 points from opening prices at it's worst level..eventually basing around 1690 (i like it long over 1700 into tomorrow)... Silver also fell considerably. I am in the camp silver finds a bid into thursday as well

NQ highlight of chart price action

5 min zoomed ES.. notice reaction to light blue line b4 Afternoon sell off

What i have found with CL, especially on days where volatility is high in the morning; crude will rally into pit close as traders cover their positions. This works on the opposite side as well, crude up strong into the morning hours, pit close could see profit taking.

TBT broke a 1 hour downtrend fairly violently. i have been looking for this to happens since monday, patience paid. ZB (30 year) traded down to 141'03 from a ledge of 142'16.

1 hour TBT

5 min ES

Post break down in commodities and equities Copper chart below.. notice how it held the bullish break out support/level for 3.80x

5 min HG

This post is an update to a post on copper from the 20th of Feb. 

Daily HG (copper)

As you can see from the chart copper broke out of a wedge around the 9th of January and continued its bull run almost to 4 dollars before coming under pressure as China growth worries came into play.

Now that the .80 level i highlighted previously has been broken, momentum carried HG into the 3.949 level. Over the 4 dollar level would mean copper is at it's highest price since mid october 2011.

This morning copper futures are up .7% on above average volume as stabilization in Europe continues and China still consumes.

15 min HG

coiled up fairly tight under 13011-

daily YM

1 hour YM

15 min ES

WE closed under the pre market high of 1373.75 though so far we are over 1370. A level we have NOT closed over in a year. Nasdaq continued her break out into the 2630 zone.  2635 ist he high. I am looking at the light blue dotted uptrending line which continues from last sunday; as support. Below the line we have to look back at 1366 as support.

 If you remember earlier today i highlighted an inverse H&S in the ES, the head was slightly below 1365 - 1364.75 to be exact. Yesterday and last thursday the NQ exhibited similar trading programs which resulted in a very tradeable trend.  DOW futures are still 5 points under 13000 as of this article, though pre market it traded 13023.

TLT 5 min.. notice the trend break late into session today

Bonds showed weakness into the close after nearly a week of gains in the face of a declining dollar, which is on year lows 78.23..


I am looking for TLT to break down below 118 and test the 115 again again, perhaps by thursday or friday.

looking like 1375 is in the cards if 137.50 can hold.. Below 1369 could trigger some stumbling sell orders..

1 min ES

1 min ES post Consumer confidence - whole move faded thus far

This post references "The Q's" post from last week.  self explanatory.

. QQQ's ... notice volumes today have seen so far this month are equal to november of 2000.

Something will give. Either a negative catalyst will provide the volume surge.. OR a spark from the federal reserve and or central banks will ignite upside.

Monthly 5 year horizon QQQ.. this pattern prior to break out over 60 was extremely bullish. now question is continue or  retest 61-60 area..

4 year look. X marks nov 2008. and nov 2009 .. printing presses have increased commodity prices. yes.

6 year RBOB futures.

CL is very technical.. that being said the move from 95 to 109 has been very technical following a easily spotted and tradable trend. this trend broke. below is what happend. Could see another point or so come out. strategic oil reserve release grumblings as well.

5 min . NOtice yellow dashed line failure. and no reversal . like last thursday..

30 min trend

SM forum - Eastern time-

Quick snippet of this mornings trading thoughts over in the stockmonster forum. Highlighted long idea around 2588. NQ trading 2610's. New 12 year high

Looking for NQ 2510
ES 1365

Nasdaq currently. -

Current NQ- POST inverse H&S revelation

4 hour CL

The trend is your friend.. until it is not. So far the 15 min an 4 hour CL trend is still holding.. Though exercise caution up here above the yellow dashed uptrending line.. Below 108.30 i will perk up..  below 108 i will be very cautious and think about downside protection..

Lots of upside momentum is built and can reverse quickly. Last couple times (red X's below yellow line) CL broke the trend it was violent though the price quickly moved back over the line.

We are so close to highs in CL it seems we might test them, over 114. Earlier in 2011 CL ran from 90's to 114 no red candles on a daily.

5 min CL

3:14pm update - Sure enough. Thursday gave a good look on today. NQ traded up out of the H&S. broke over 2597 and mounted 2600, highs being 2615.75. 

5 min

Today's price action nearly 100% identical to this past thursday.. Came off hard as cash opened.. then a solid bid found and straight up. Inverse H&S on the nasdaq. Looking for 2597 a test.. then perhaps regain 2600.. Friday was a record high for the nasdaq going back over 11 years.

5 min NQ

As of March 20, 2012- we highlighted this break out originally on Feb 24th. 

10 year Q's - QQQ formerly the QQQQ

i spy a few patterns. 

12 year Nasdaq composite

Last time the nasdaq was up here was mid november 2000. Pretty much means we trade into 3k based on momentum.

1 hour CL

Post breach of 108.50 CL.. clearly the buyer is determined.. how determined.. time will tell.. just keep eyes on the lines and dont try to out smart it.

We are market narrators, we do not hold your hand. But we do give out actionable and pertinent market color when you need it the most.   no BS.

[09:48:08] evan_: i dont recommend shorting the market out right

[09:48:29] evan_: what makes today any different from the other days where we rally after a morning low.. and this mornings low is pretty violent

[09:50:43] xxxx_: DNDN getting ready for  another punch higher
[09:52:28] evan_: watching spy here for a bounce

Stop by and say hello 

again the 2600 level is back in play.. over 2600.50 could bring a rush of covering/buying/squeezing/crying/laughing

15 min NQ

another wishy washy overnight session trading on the same prices.. NQ leading the weakness. Notice how the ES reacted very negatively around 4 am to the downtrending red line in place from sundays gap up. Lines only extended no re drawn.

5 min ES

15 min ES

for what it's worth.   obviously be careful with your longs if we get under cash session lows. Over 1363 i get a bit bullish into 1365.. The real ticking time bomb is the NQ's imo.. 2600 in sights. over lots of momo could build/squeeze.

Copper has broken its 15 min down trend.. it cleared the 3.80 i mentioned lastnight as a bullish pinch level.

30 min HG

4 hour zoomed - 30 min inset -

The chart to the right shows a channel created over the last 2 months. The only blips in trend have been in the last week.

The NDX is acting as if 2600 is the boogy man BUT every dip into the lower trend support has been bought with conviction.

That being said if the lower trend channel fails there is a lot of air.. if 2600 is mounted and held.. 2620+ could be in the cards, especially if apple decides to run into 550.

AAPL 4 hour.  zoom

5 min ES

Looking back to my S&P post from earlier today i mentioned the spooz needed to climb over 1365 to convert into a test of 1370's. This, of course, did not happen and the price failed into the Thursday's closing 1354.75-1355 area.... 1355's were bought and we bounced into 1360. 1360.50 is where the spooz sits as i type.

30 min ES. Complacent pattern

1 min NQ (nasdaq future)

Not a whole lot to report .. but we did get the standard 2012 trade, quick sell off open then rally back to opening range. The low for cash is 1358.5 high being 1365... we need to get over 1365 to covert into a test of 1367-1370 range.. 1374 is a big level.. What might give the index's the UMPH they need to achieve new prices is upside participation from most of the beta names and a continued bond break down..

5 min ES

Notice the convergence of a few lines @ 1364.. coinciding with 2696 in the NQ.  

2600 is a bigger level than DOW 13000 mind you

Notice the increase in volume as apple trades higher.. especially through 512 and 513... 520 could be easily in the cards by afternoon.. Could push NDX into 2605+ .. IF IF IF.. the current trend holds in the index's. Need more cash to flush out of bonds..

1 min aapl

Euro zone reaches deal on second Greek bailout package (130 billion euro....)

drip drip drip.. wait wait wait.. . 1365 has a lot of mass as does 1360...... 1360 will close the gap. Copper strong. DX strong.. over 79.20 ... currently 79.30

5 min ES

4

4 hour zoomed HG (copper Future)

clearly HG has bounced off up-trending support dawn from the 12.19.  If this trend holds it could mean a briskly paced march into the 4 level...

BUT before we get excited about a test of the 4$ level we gotta look at copper on a 5-1hour time frame.. Below you can see the consolidation/wedge pattern develop over a period of days. HG needs to get over 3.80, hold and move higher for a clean pattern upside break out.. if not we pivot back into 3.75ish... copper and china are largely correlated. as you know.

15 min HG

1 min volume

Yeah.. i dunno what to make of it either.. I guess someone did not get the memo US is closed... During a norma NQ open (market actually open, not closed) we normally see 4-7k contracts trade.. Today 1300 traded were knocking the NQ loose for over 10 handles. carry on.

5 min NQ_F .. The red candle printed @ exactly 9:30 eastern.