Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Cash closing print in Futures..

1 min ES
welp.... about 117k mini's crossed in the last minute of cash in the ES... positioning long and or hedging or just games.. who knows.. but that is some serious dough. 
1 min ES.. notice the massive spike.. puts in perspective ratio

Late Session S&P500 - 'on the shelf' Chart

5 min ES
We are on the shelf.... 1239.75 is the high..... looks as if the shelf is holding firm @ 1230... perfect..
if 1240 trades we could see buy stops lifting offers into 1250.

trade what u see...

Late Session Correlation Update (SPY)


DX melted higher all while CL metled lower.. now DX breaking down and the ES is finding some bids.... as well as a few beta the last 45 min as it could wake up 

Post Global FX Intervention S&P500 Futures Chart

1 min
Yep.. all bets are off when the hand of god comes into the market.. because we all know how the market acts when outside forces are not injecting liquidity and or coordinating with ever major country in the world to bolster a failing enterprise... the Euro... as you can see from the chart above.. 7 am central time is when the magic happend.. lifting 20 handles in minutes.. breakout out of rising triangles...

If we break over 1234.5 we could see 1240 based on chasing momentum .. volume POST the intervention is tepid at best.. a bit over normal but nothing crazy.. still not enough market participants left to move a market huge during cash.. just not enough players outside the big desk who we all know now are in collusion.

Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Post S&P Downgrade of Major Bank S&P500 Futures Look

5 min ES.. 
Well S&P's did it again.. cut the our nations largest banks from A to A- ... Moody's has the united states on outlook negative... the megaphone pattern in the ES today clearly has something up its sleeve.. remember historically a megaphone pattern is bearish even though when the pattern is forming it appears bullish.. Patience...

1189 is the lind in sand... the low's we are sitting on in the overnight session are indeed the lows which we sat on during cash session.... Gonna be another long night.. keep eyes again on the dollar... and of course the euro.. CL is indicating some weakness under the 98 level.. again 100 fail to hold for a open pit session... even though the mid east is up in arms... the markets are unsure and dangerous.

Bank of America Downgraded by Standard & Poor (BAC)

Traded under 5 bucks for a few traded... hmm 
GS traded 87.39...  spooz off 4 ..

Stockmonster TV Talking Consumer Confidence & Oil

Alligator Pattern in the S&P's

The alligator showed her teeth.. then them market buckled.. low volume melt up = below
1 min ES
1 min ES.. volume declining .. price rising.. chomp chomp

Post Consumer Confidence Blow Out S&P Futures Look

5 min 
As you can see the market has not a clue.. we have the parent company to American Airlines filing for bankruptcy and then we get the largest blow out of consumer confidence in nearly almost a decade? Hmm something smells weird.

The high is 1206 and the low 1190.25 of cash session.. again as i mentioned earlier the 1190 - 1200 range will be the range until the ball misses the paddle on either side...

notice the amplifying pattern in the chart above.. if it continues we could see a reaction up into 1208 which is the upper resistance to the megaphone pattern.. Which when this particular pattern terminates.. it usually i bearish.. because of indecision .. .

1 min ES

American Airlines Files For Bankruptcy (AMR)

AMR 1 min 

Pre Open S&P500 Chart - 1206 High print (FBOOK)

1 min ES
Well.. as you can see.. we are now 1.15 percent higher because of a nice little ticket of 15k contracts at 5:30 am bought @ the high of the session which lifted the spoo 6 handles... Pretty typical.. hearing some BS Italian meatball rumors... ES trading in lock step with the Euro... Crude woke up.. trading up to 99.28...
1.75c move in about hour and 15 min.. not bad for pre market..

DX vs 6E 

Monday, November 28, 2011

Euro VS S&P500 correlation

1 min time frame

Late Night S&P500 Chart (SPY)

51 min ES_F
Clearly bid tonight.. the break over the downtrend line in place from 1196.25 was bullish as it pushes shorts using that metric.. The break was 1188.75 ... Euro fell below 1.33 before someone came in a "saved the day" putting the euro on a upward stop running mission.. DX falling back to 79.20.. CRUDE on the other had is remaining calm and collected....down about half a percent @ 97.68..

could be another day like monday setting up for tomorrow...

Post Close Charts & Musings (SPX)

15 min ES_F 
What i can say about today... the markets are thin, participants are quick to pull the trigger to roll in and out of positions & trade what is in front of you.

The fade from highs today was almost a gimmie trade though it took much patience in gauging the price action up into the 1196.25's... the action was lethargic and sporadic at best. The dollar from the moment cash open saw a consistant bid all the way up to 79.48 which coincided with ES testing the opening cash range of 1182.5 .. twice. kabash.

The closing print shenanigans was nothing more than games to get individuals to puke positions. It worked. Euro still falling into 1.33 ... Crude is down .7% @ 97.54.. remember 100.74 printed this morning... Thin markets = wild moves.... If the magic euro crosses 1.33 and stays below look for equities to give up the bacon... Crude already lead us up friday.. and is foreshadowing at possible weakening/profit taking in the euro tonight...

1 min ES 

Spin The Bottle - European Sovereign Debt Edition

Spin the Bottle
-Jeff  @thekillir  Kilburg 
Sr. Development Director at Treasury Curve 

We all remember the game of risk that involved spinning a bottle in junior high.  Unfortunately, over in Europe there are 17 participants with one member looking a bit worse for the wear than the next.  

We have seen Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain in quite a puckered state during the past year but, our concern is now cast upon the core.  

Last week, Germany saw for the first time in quite some time a failed bond auction.  

What does this mean?  They simply could not sell the debt they designated to sell for that specific auction.  

Specifically, they were only able to ascertain about 3.8 billion worth of bids for the 6 billion they wanted to unload.  This makes some think that this European crisis could be rotten to the core, pun intended.  

Subsequent to this auction, we witnessed the disparity between U.S. government 10 year yields and German bund yields widen to an uncomfortable level alarming those that look to the fixed income markets for myself.  

Post Cash Close Sillyness in the S&P futures

1 min ES 
  Quick 10 handle retrace up to the downtrend line from 1196.25 high of day... nearly 55k contracts crossed on the print up to 1192.... Pretty interesting.. .

The Magic Number.. Monday Music

Mid Day S&P500 Futures Chart

1 min ES
As you can see 1196.25 was the high so far.. we are stuck in a 1195/1190 range as the dollar is keeping the kabash on equities and crude oil shooting up... DX trading over 79.30.. tug of war between euro and dollar is causing a war between bulls and bears in the index's and OIL is as volatile as ever..... this really is not a bull or bear issue with equities.. its a currency game.

98.5 was a big support level in CL which showed quite a bit of volume when it broke.. now is minor resistance .. along with 1194 ES.

Jack in the box.. market goes down but someone is always turning the crank....

Flying Triangles - S&P500 Futures Chart

5 min
as you can see.. 3 days of selling has been retraced in the hours before cash even opened on the announcement there may be an announcement of another IMF plan to save club med.

anyway you can see how we ran into 1170 and broke higher.. rand into 1178 broke higher .. ran into 1190 and broke higher.. all ascending triangles.. Crude is selling off a bit and ES is now up 3.5% .. seems we are getting a bit ahead of ourselves... if the 1195 area fails we could trade sideways until we test 1200.. which was last seen monday of last week...there is a lot of air below this helicopter..

Saturday, November 26, 2011

Weekend S&P Futures Look

5 min ES 
1145 is the flash point ... 1147.5s held for the friday low.. The sell off into the close was a bit unexpected though has been known to happen on days where the index's are carried higher in a bad tape.

These melt up's create great set ups for a fundie or three to open shorts into... and then cover 20 handles later.

1170 - 1145 is the range to watch for sunday open... above 1165-1170 we could see a nice bounce.. under 1150 we could see more red and a probe of lows..... August lows are not to far away...

1 min CL/ES

* worth noting ---- Funny how crude moved in the exact opposite direction of the index's into the 30 min of trading... 

Friday, November 25, 2011

Netflix Chart Update- Post 65 Failure (NFLX)

previous chart...  from late 2010 ..
The below chart speaks for itself... yes the next croc's
Monthly NFLX 

Thursday, November 24, 2011

Thursday Night Euro Chart Update

5 min
Again watch the 1.33 level... big descending triangle.. pressure is building over the level.. if it cracks it will woosh loserr..

Late Night S&P500 Chart (SPY)

5 min ES
NOT so quiet to night so far... everything is orderly this evening, though pressure is still on the bids.  The dollar opened up with a gap to 79.42 .. Euro basically UNCH though tested 1.3315......

if 1153 breaks we will see 1150 .. and if that cracks.. it could be a quick move to august lows.. which will be a the 4rd major test of 1100 level....1168 is the LOW for the DEC es contract.

Today's Updated S&P500 Futures Chart

5 min ES
Happy commercial holiday! ....1156 the globex ES_F low. The overnight futures are now open trading 1160 on the SPU ...Crude is down below the 97 level...

The price action today included a failure to hold highs of the session much like this past tuesday and wednesday's price action.

The Euro still weak with the 1.33 level as major support.....

Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Late Night S&P500 Chart (SPY)

5 min ES_F

Still under the down trendline from the break of 1180 ... starting the down leg @ 1195 ... 1165 resistance.....

Happy Thanksgiving down on theCMZ with Talking Euro

Mid Day S&P500 Chart (SPY)

5 min ES 
We failed to rise above the pressure zone of 1180 as the dollar rose over the 79 metric. 1161 is the low for this morning... i am looking for a possible test of lows into the afternoon as the carry trade tries to reverse and commodities continue with their weakness.

Crude popped quite a bit off lows as inventories saw a draw. But its only a fade ... if euro weakness continues...

15 min ES 

This morning's S&P500 Chart (SPX)

5 min ES
The 1170 level will be tough to crack. we need the dollar to push into 79's and commodities to break down. If we get the perfect stock the 1180 1170 channel will be broke to the downside .. 1162 up next if we push below 1166.25..

Have a good morning.. watch your beta..

Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Don McLean - American Pie.

Tonights S&P500 Chart. Post Breach 1180 (SPY)

5 min ES 
Highlight is the breakdown under 1180 , a paragraph from my previous days's note helped identify the trading opp.

"Now that the 1200 metric is in the rear view (for now) we are staring at the 1179.25 level as the lower line in the sand. If we trade and hold with conviction under this metric another 10 handles of sell stop air pockets could be triggered. "

Pressure is on as the dollar rises into the 78.60 level, once over 79 there will be a great deal of momentum. If this does indeed happen as the euro crisis deepens 1150 could be tested in short order... If 1150 fails we could fail to 1100. Trade it day by day but have a roadmap. We could very easily bounce a bit. but it does feel different this time around. 

commodities overnight are confirming equities weakness.

Post Late Session Sell off S&P500 Futures Chart (SPY)

1 hour ES 
 Now that the 1200 metric is in the rear view (for now) we are staring at the 1179.25 level as the lower line in the sand. If we trade and hold with conviction under this metric another 10 handles of sell stop air pockets could be triggered.  Upside i like the SPU long over 1195.... Which is where we failed today during cash session....

Trading on a intra-day basis is becoming harder and harder as moves become more erratic and violent in either direction.

 I am still a believer in coming in with a clean slate, though getting up early or staying up late is advised if you want to get a solid feel for the overnight price action. Intra session a lot of the prices which are 'sticky' were prices which overnight saw volume print.

Keep watching the dollar.. it is still firm. and any wimper out of the euro zone will indeed send the dollar higher and equity markets fumbling.

Post MF global has created an environment where many traders are still unable to trade who were active and willing participants a month ago... The destruction of the capital markets is alive and well....Good work  jonny C. 

Mid Day Crude Chart Update (USO)

1 min CL... Yes volatility is back.. CL has not a clue where it is going.. neither do you... 

What it looks like on a chart to get "algo'ed"

1 min ES
simple..  knock contracts out of the weaker hands with a burst of violent selling followed by sustained violent buying.

Quick Look at NFLX post Secondary (NFLX)

5 min NFLX

200 million secondary... traded 68 pre market.. this is the line in the sand.. below stops will be probed.. 

Morning S&P500 Futures Chart (SPY)

1185 is the low so far.. post GDP miss..the 1200 1180 channel needs to be broken up or down out of.. feeling like down is the ticket this morning.
ES 5 min

Monday, November 21, 2011

Late Session Crude Chart - Post Iran Headline (USO)

5 min cl ...

What a difference a few hours makes? We got a threatening crude supply headline out of europe concerning IRAN coupled a well timed buy program. This ='s party time for momentum chasing algo's and forced covering.. we are "well off the lows" with ES back at the 1195 metric after staying 1180's in the eye a few hours ago.. Crude took a seemingly endless nosedive into 95.24 only to race back to 97.47. When crude wants to move she will move, best to trade first and get out of the way of the trade or end up a hook ornament.

S&P500 Futures Morning Chart UpDate

5 min ES
1195 was sticky.. now 1190 is the next ledge though 1188.75 did trade. Watch the dollar for a run over 79 an 6E from a break below euro session/ overnight lows. Crude has pressure on it again as the correlation circus pulls on the offers.....96 is the new line in sand for crude to stay bullish above.. below bears back in control.

Saturday, November 19, 2011

Late Night S&P500 Chart (SPY)

5min ES

Friday, November 18, 2011

Friday From the Floor the CME with The Killir on The CMZ

Thursday, November 17, 2011

Crude Squeezing Up As The Dollar Backs Off

1 min CL 
Watch the dollar as it has broke down out of the tight trading pattern its has been fractaling in the past 4 hours.. 77.40 failed.. 77.20 was the big level which held this morning.

as for crude.. the 99 level is magnetic... pressure is lightening up as the dollar falls. buyers moving back in to gold as well... ebb and flow... i think the 4% down move in crude today was a bit over done.. and smelled fishy.

notice the break of the trend line i highlighted...

DX 5 1 min 

Pre Close & Post Break of 1220 "line in sand" S&P Futures Chart

30 min ES.. 
keep. it. simple. .. as downside momentum picked up under 1225 in the ES so did the selling in the EURO GOLD and Crude....The rolling of commodity and currency markets created a perfect storm for equities which failed miserably at the 1220 level triggering nearly 15 handles of sell stops.

 refer to my previous post today, time stamped. Check the "line in sand" 

5 min ES

Mid Day S&P500 Future Chart

The dollar is still firm over 78.20 and crude is still out in left field .. it is a train running without a conductor .... 1220 was the ES low this morning.. and that was NOT random.. take a look at my previous days tech and notice this yellow dotted line has been in play for over a week..... beige dotted line no medium term support...... below 1220 the market will buckle...
5 min ES

Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Post Late Session Sell off S&P500 Futures Chart (SPY)

30 min ES_F

15 min ES_F
The S&P's were spooked as the cash markets came to a close, perhaps by fears another Arab spring? or is something else brewing because the financials were getting ROCKED. GS trading with a 95 handle.. Morgan down nearly 8 percent... 
Perhaps the skeletons are going to start talking soon? 

That being said you can see the the yellow dotted line which as been overhead resistance this whole week was tested again, and again failed this afternoon.

 As i mentioned in my video's i like the S&P long OVER the 1260 metric because if we DID trade over the yellow line it would take some serious buying. That buying never showed up and the volume was all on the downside once again.. Participants wait, then pounce. 1228 was the low so far this evening as the dollar pushed up near the 79 level. 

Crude on the other hand remained bid and failed to give up much ground, firmly planted over the 101 level. 

Jeff Kilburg and Evan McDaniel from NASDAQ

Post Pit Close Crude Chart (USO)

1 min CL  
 A new hour a new high.. 102.89 is the print...  the channel we are in now is 102.80 - 101.80 .... any deviation below the lower support or above resistance could mean a big move higher or lower. higher we could be running into the 103 level.. lower end we could see a test of 101. 

Again the dollar remains strong. despite what is going on in the equity markets which are basically in drift mode waiting for some europe resolution. 

Back In The Channel - S&P500 Futures Look

Volume again rather low(ish) intra session.. the real volatility was in the early morning europe trade and the hours before pre cash US session. the 1255 -1240 channel is where the price is currently.. above 1260 i still think we could see some upside.. though since the 1254's failed last night the bears are in control under 1255. Oil is off in left field and the rubber band is stretched. 
5 min ES 

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