Thursday, March 28, 2013

TFP morning letter for march 28, 2007

SP 500 E-mini Future
The ES is higher this morning to 1558 up 2 points with support at the 1555 level with resistance remaining at 1560 into 1565. Overnight the ES traded up off the 1550 after falling unexpectedly early Wednesday evening. 

Currently the relationship between the ES and T complex is fairly in tact though both bonds and ES are red with 1556.50 trading but by only fractional perfect. The 1553.50 level is the pinch lower area with 1550 before 1545 as mechanical support.

Since today the Fixed income markets are closed for half day and tomorrow markets observing Good Friday, you can expect some end of month games; so be aware.

FX & T-Complex
6 E 5 min 
A bit of relief from the non stop buying of the T complex this week though early Thursday morning the ZB did make a fresh week high of 144'31 before falling off to 144'09. As of this writing the ZB is lower by 0.06% 5o 144'14 with sell stops under 144'08.

If the ZB can continue lower under 144'09 the ES bid should continue to firm up into 1560. The DX is lower to 83.30 up from a 83.20 low which hels to the penny. A break under 83.20 means 83.10 launch pad from Wednesday morning comes into play.

The Euro is high as well by 0.21% to 1.2809 afters eeing the 1.277 level hol early Thursday morning it gave me confidence in putting 1.276 as line in sand support before back to Wednesday low of 1.2758.

Crude Oil
CL 5 min 
CL traded up all night into a 96.94 high around 1:30 am CT though has relented and fallin from 96.66 to 96.28 in about 15m minutes as i write. Currently CL has leveled out around 96.47 with line in sand support at 96.28 you must watch the 96 leve for support under.

On the flip said the 96.60 level if converted back to suport will provide the launchpad into 97, especially if the DX falls off and 6E continues to retrace Wednesday's drop.

In order to take out highs 96.94 need to be lifted quickly after 96.85 an bids defended as price moves higher without a snap back.

R1: 1559.50 R1: 2805 R1: 96.50  R1: 449.50 
R2: 1565.75 R2: 2811  R2: 96.94  R2: 451
S1: 1553 S1: 2800  S1: 96.35  S1: 945
S2: 1549.75 S2: 2890 S2: 96 S2: 942 

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Wednesday, March 27, 2013

TFP market summary for Wednesday March 27, 2013 |

SP 500 E-mini Future

The futures complex wiggled as historical correlations continued to break apart throughout Wednesday's session. Specifically speaking about the ES retracing 90% of the morning drop off 1560.50 into 1545.75 back up to 1558.50; all while DX & ZB rallied over 0.50%.

Historically the correlations goes as follows.. ZB DX up = ES CL down... Today was ZB DX CL ES UP - 6E down.  and 6E up = commodities and ES up.

TPF Morning Letter for March 27, 2013 | $TLT

SP 500 E-mini Future
Welcome to the new reality where the biggest moves happen in the hours between 1am and 8 am ET... Currently the ES is down 7.25 points or 0.45% to 1550.25, down from a WEEK highs of 1560.50 to the exact print.

To be honest i am not really sure why the euro has made 4 month lows down .65% to 1.287 beyond the fact Italian bond yields have plummeted and the same BS 'no material' headlines out of the EU being recycled.

Tuesday, March 26, 2013

Trade for Profit Market Summary for March 26, 2013

SP 500 E-mini Future
Today had a very different correlative feel as the DX ZB ES and CL contracts all ended higher despite a flurry of misleading headlines out of the EU in reference to Cyprus issue(s).

When looking at the 5 min chart above, @ 6:55am ET the ES pinched below the RED average into 1547.75 sweeping the sell stops before the 1550 was converted to support ahead of the 8 am ET #'s which saw the ZB tick down and the ES remain firm over 83.

Monday, March 25, 2013

TFP Market Summary for Monday March 25, 2013

SP 500 E-mini Future
1 hour ES 
I will keep this short and sweet... Today the market was dragged through the much by headline after headline out of the EU pertaining to the Cyprus mess. That being said, trade plans must be tweaked on the fly when irrationality of fear and greed takes over the tape.

The irrationality of the media who RT's stories of complete bullshit do nothing but exacerbate already complicated issues. Today's spoo chart is a perfect example of fear and greed as the ES traded into a new 2013 high of 1560.50 before headlines and rumors started swirling around 7 am CT. From this point on the SPoo was offered into 1555 which saw buyers defend off the open.

SP futures are higher ahead of US open and following Cyprus "bailout"

SP 500 E-mini Future
5 min ES
The ES is higher to by 8 points to 1560 this Monday morning following a weekend of back and forth between Cyprus lawmakers and the EU which has resulted in a 'bailout'.

Resistance is now 1562 with support at the 1555 level under 1557.50.

Much of the the move higher in risk has been contained to the equity indexes as the DX is higher by 0.25% while the ZB is down -.55% and ES is +.35%.  Thus coming into cash open keep the bond/equity spread in mind when looking for direction. Correlations work till they do not.

Friday, March 22, 2013

The TFP Weekly S&P 500 Futures Recap -

SP 500 E-mini Future
4 hour ES 

Despite the sheer panic over Cyprus, the ES_F closed the week just about where it started @ 1553.75.

What this tells us is the market clearly consolidated and build a base around 1535 which was built upon throughout the week into 1554 highs following cash close Friday.

What do we expect for next week, well use the complex as gauge; if bonds continue to melt ES stands a high chance of moving back over 1560 to target all time ES highs over 1588 ES and

Futures higher heading into Friday's Session

SP 500 E-mini Future
30 min ES
Primarily based on the fact the bonds did not make a new weekly high, the ES is higher by 3.50 points to 1542.50 with support being 1540 and 1535 line in sand.

Moving back into early Thursday, Cyprus headlines caused a bit of panic under the 1540 level as the ZB rallied into the 143'31 weekly high pushing ES into a low of 1535.

Thursday, March 21, 2013

Market Summary For Thursday March 21, 2013

SP 500 E-mini Future
1 min ES.. note the 1545 break up 1 min trend 
"Da bonds" dominated the discussion within my circles of discussions... for what it is worth.

Referring back to the 1548 level from last night, it failed; resulting in the failure of 1540 with the new low to watch for support @ 1536.50.

The ES traded like a nit with around Cyprus headlines due to the depth being as shallow as a kiddie pool on a Carnival cruise ship. I would never.

Futures unchanged at 1549 ahead of existing homesales

SP 500 E-mini Future
30 min ES
All quiet on the homefront ahead of a multitude of datasets today starting with weekly Jobless claims @ 8:30 am ET, Flash PMI @ 8:58 am ET as well as existing homesales @ 10:00 am ET.

 Depending upon how the data plays out the ES should remain over the 1545 level and under 1555 making for a decent break our or break down play.

Wednesday, March 20, 2013

Market Summary for March 20th 2013

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SP 500 E-mini Future
30 min ES
 Today played out as nicely as possible when taking into account the FOMC and a curiously strong dollar fighting with curiously weak bond prices.

Nonetheless the ES closed higher by 7 points after trading into our morning letter target of 1555 IF the ES broke over, thus the HOD is now resistance @ 1555.75.

US stock future higher ahead of FOMC 1550

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SP 500 E-mini Future
15 min ES
A very orderly overnight session greeted traders this morning with the ES making a high over 1550 resistance at 1552.75. You can thank the 30 year falling 0.30% steadily throughout the night/morning for the smooth sailing.

Suport in the ES we will put @ 1545 on a 5 min time frame with 1553 as resistance with buy stops lingering over 1555 and sell stops under 1545. Wait for the break if you are looking for a scalp idea keeping in mind we have the FOMC meeting announcement at 2:00 pm ET today.

Tuesday, March 19, 2013

Trade for Profit Market update for March 19th 2013

SP 500 E-mini Future
15 min ES
Tuesday brought a different pattern than we are used to... that is... a dip off the open, bounce then collapse through the previous low into new lows of the session; which was 1531.75.

The line-in-the-sand remains @ 1529.75 from Monday, which if the level would have failed today a flush into 1520 would have been in order...this merely based on momentum.

In my summation we can count on 1535 holding into the evening locking the price into a box defined by 1544 on the upside.

S&P futures higher following housing data

SP 500 E-mini Future
5 min ES
Not a whole has changed from last night with 1550 being immediate support and 1545 the line in sand before we move back to the 1540 level which was resistance turned support from sunday evening/monday.

Under 1540 the 1535 level is the last line of defense for buyers as 1535 is the event horizon which triggered the moe into 1529.75.

For further upside we have to break over 1551 to covert back into Monday highs for a test of 1555, over 55 it is 60. Of course all this depends upon the bond flows today, which has been positive thus far.

Monday, March 18, 2013

TFP market summary for march 19th 2013

SP 500 E-mini Future
5 min ES. note the 1529.l75 level
The S*P's retraced much of the sunday evening drop with 1529.75 remaining the line in sand under the 1540 level.

Currently the SP's are higher by 2.75 points to 1549.50 with 1550 as immediate resistance which has been putting up quite a fight... 1547.50 is the median between 40's and 50's imo...

The ledge from Friday is 1555, if this level is regained following a break over 1550 then it is back to 52 week highs. I know everyone hates to hear this but what can you do.. trade the market you have not the one you want.

The Cyprus mess... what's new?

SP 500 E-mini Future
30 min ES
We talked about the 1530 level being the line in sand and it appears others thought this as well thereby not a whole lot has changed from our Sunday update beyond the fact 1529.50 held as support.

Currently the minis are lower by 0.85% @ 1540.50 with the pinch level being 1542 for a target of 1548.

Sunday, March 17, 2013

Sunday Update - 1530 line in sand following Cyprus Bailout

SP 500 E-mini Future
30 min ES
Quick update here following the Cyprus bank levy of deposits at just over 10%.... My take is the precedent has been set and the bar has been raised in regards to creative ways of stabilizing the EU region.

Many thing this bailout is 'unprecedented' but it has happend before, just no one was around to blog about it and newspapers were the only way anyone got their news in 1992.

Friday, March 15, 2013

Futures are little changed ahead of March Option Expiration

SP 500 E-mini Future
30 min ES
 The S&P's are essentially flat @ 1556.50 going into this March OPEX with the new high for 2013 being 1558.75. 

If you remember i had a limit to sell @ 1559 but ended up moving it down to take 58.50 this morning.

Support is 1553.25 with resistance at 1557 up into 58.75; over = 1560.  ON the downside it 1553 were to fail it is back to 1550 , under 1550 = 1546.25.

Thursday, March 14, 2013

TFP market summary for march 14th 2013 | $SPX

SP 500 E-mini Future
5 min ES
Another 2013 high of 1557.25 was place by the ES this afternoon following a lackluster session which actually had many individual stocks acting out independently from the indexes.

I find this different and def a positive, will look to see how stocks perform tomorrow on a individual basis, rational value seeking markets could be upon us instead of capital conservation.

A weak dollar and strong bonds did not phase the ES today, surprisingly  which puts me in defensive mode as the uptrend is in jeopardy of being pushed below 1550 if 1555 were to fail with conviction setting off a cascade of back to the thick lime green line @ 1550. Then comes 1547.75 then 1542. Basically just reverse the price action from monday till today.

S&P futures are higher to 1554 following Australia job report

S&P 500 E-mini Future
5 min ES 
Currently the ES is higher by 4 points to 1554 after trading into a fresh new high of 1554.75 after the 1550 level converted to support following a positive job report out of Australia.

That being said if you remember our target was 1555 over 1551 which will probably be met here in a bit on the ES so watch for a reversal back to 1545 IF 1552.75 were to fail.

Helping to fuel the ES bid is the bond complex selling off, the ZB is lower by 0.51% to 140'24 though the DX is higher and making highs as i type this of 83.42 +0.32%.

Wednesday, March 13, 2013

Trade for Profit Market Summary for March 13, 2013

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SP 500 E-mini 
Per our morning letter thoughts, profit taking and distribution was the theme for today's session as the ES remained under the 1551 level though over 1542.50; thus the range to watch into the night/morning is a break under 42.50 = 40 and over 51 = 55s. Patience

30 min ES
Currently the ES has a slight bid .50 as a result of positive jobs data out of Australia (+71K for February & full time +18K).. That being said.. refer to the levels above for the roadmap.....

The bond complex became offered following the Aussie job # which is not surprising considering bonds have been offered since the 141'29 ZB level failed following positive retail sales figure this morning.

Retail sales beat expectations lifting the S&P 500 futures out of RED

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S&P 500 E-mini Future
5 min ES
Following positive retails sales figures, the ES has moved off its lows of 1542 to 1547.50; Retail Sales 1.1%, Exp. 0.6% Ex Autos: 1.0%, Exp. 0.5%.

That being said 1548 was resistance though as of this writing 1548.25 has traded thus 1549.75 high of session becomes resistance before buy stops are triggered into 1551.

Over 1551 = 1555 in my summation though i would like to see the 1547 level converted to support before we make move into knew 2013 highs.  A break under 1542 will surely mean at the very least 1540 fails into 1537.75 - 35 because after yesterday's soft performance the chance of further profit taking increases.

Tuesday, March 12, 2013

Trade for Profit Market Summary for March 12, 2013

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S&P 500 E-mini Future
5 min ES
 The S&P's broke their 'winning streak' though the DJI (dow jones) managed to close at a new all time high; cheerlead the entire way but your usual twitterotti.

What stood out in my mind today was the persistent ZB strength up from the Monday evening low of 140'19 which carried into the Tuesday afternoon high of 141'24; this as the fed went about their open market operations.

TFP Morning letter for March 12, 2013 | $YUM $AAPL $COST

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S&P 500 E-mini Future
30 min ES
Good morning,  currently the ES is lower by 3.25 points or -0.21% to 1547.25 with 1546 being immediate support.

The catalyst for the downside is not clear beyond the fact we have been making multi-year highs everyday going back almost a week.

That being said, the the tug of war between stocks and bonds currently has bonds winning as the 30 year has been bidding since it 140'18 early Monday evening.

Monday, March 11, 2013

TFP market summary for March 11th, 2013

S&P 500 E-mini Future
5 min ES
The action in the mini's this morning could be summed up in two words.. constructive consolidation...This until bonds became offered around 9:00 am CT and the ES moved up off over 1543, not stopping until 1551.75 traded in the minutes following cash close...

 Thus the new resistance is 1552 and the new 2013 high 1551.75.  Support is 1545 under the 50 level in ES. 1537.75 remains a pivot of interest as that is the level where we broke out Friday morning.

S&P futures little changed ahead of Monday's Open

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S&P 500 E-mini Future
15 min ES
The mini's are lower by 1.75 points to 1542.75 as the DX rises moderately from the 29th session out of the last 24.  Support in the ES is @ 1540 now that 1542 failed a few times, resistance will remain 1545 up into 1550 which is our target over 1547.75, Friday's high.

The 30 year bond future is higher to 141'04 up from a low of 141'22 which makes 1540'20 the line in sand before Friday's low of 140'14 becomes support.

Friday, March 8, 2013

A upbeat February Non-farm payroll sends S&P futures into new 2013 high

S&P 500 E-mini Future
5 min ES
The ES june contract traded into 1547.75 following the upbeat February Non-farm Payrolls, the ES's highest level of 2013. Non-Farm 236K vs. 162K expected, 157K prior.

Following the NFP print, the 30 year bond traded into 140'14 while the DX into 2013 highs of 82.76; Gold futures also fell to 1560.40. The move in bonds and dollar is the historical reaction to a positive jobs figure.

Thursday, March 7, 2013

Economic Cycle Research Institute co-founder Lakshman Achuthan: U.S. recession "began around the middle of last year"

Lakshman Achuthan, co-founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, told Tom Keene and Sara Eisen on "Bloomberg Surveillance" this morning that a U.S. recession
"began around the middle of last year."
Mr. Achuthan goes onto say..
"the entire West is in the yo-yo years. They have all been having growth stair stepping down. It is very weak growth with higher cycle volatility which will give you more frequent recessions." transcript and video below fold

TFP Market Summary for March 7th 2013

S&P 500 E-mini
15 min ES
Despite hanging a new 2013 high @ 1545.75 on the march contract, the ES crept along on anemic volume today following a mix of bullish and bearish data this morning, primarily being a upbeat weekly jobless figure of 380k vs 440k (high for June ES is 1540.50, thus that is now resistance to break). Subscribe to the TFP Insider 

Currently the ES is offered down 1.50 points @ 1536.25 on the June contract with 1535.75 being support and the low thus far; under 30's = 25 in quick order.

We do not have as much data for the June contract as far as price action goes thus tonight and the open will be interesting what strikes the volume had been hiding in for June.

S&P 500 futures trade 1544 following a upbeat weekly jobless claims figure of 340k

Weekly jobless claims came in 340k vs 355k expected while the productivity of U.S. workers fell in the fourth quarter by the most in four years, while labor expenses accelerated. Subscribe to the TFP Insider 

5 min ES
Due to the positive jobless figure the S&P 500 futures got a bit of a boost at the 8:30 am ET level of 1539 into 1542. Thus over 1542.25 we could easily swing up into 1545 highs from yesterday though a growing trade deficit is working to cancel out the positive job print.

On the downside in the ES 1537.75 is the line in sane before we run into 1535 under = 1530/1527.50.  Upside over 1545 = 1550.

Fun with charts. $AAPL vs $SPY on a six month horizon

$AAPL - 37% $SPY + 8%. give or take.
AAPL vs SPY 6 months

Wednesday, March 6, 2013

TFP market summary for March 6, 2013

ES 5 min 
 Following the 'surprise' ADP employment print the S&P futures traded into a new high of 1544.75 though consolidated throughout the remainder of the session of 1538 and under 1543.  In our effort to keep things simple, wait for a break under 1535 or a push over 1545 to dictate your next trade in the mini's.

goog 1 min 
When looking at the 5 min ES chart on the upper right, the pink average touching the support from last evenings flag creates a pretty algo centric area; thus below its quick to 35's, under 35's we have nothing into 1528.50.

TFP Letter: Upbeat ADP sends S&P into 1544

5 min ES
Following a upbeat ADP employment figure the S&P 500 futures traded into our Monday evening target of 1544.25, the high for Wednesday is now 1544.75. Support is 1540 down to 1533.75, resistance is 1545-50.

After the ES push into highs i would not expect a ton more upside because crude oil failed to move up with risk, actually crude made a fresh day low following ADP.  (ADP printed 198K vs the Expectation of 170K)

Tuesday, March 5, 2013

TFP Market summary for March 5, 2013

1 hour ES. showing 1530 break out
The S&P futures steamed over the 'Chinese real-estate panic of early March 2013' fairly quickly eh? Because correct me if i am wrong the ES traded 1542.75 today.

 The SPX added 14.59 points or 0.96% to close at 1539.79 a new 2013 high. If you remember back to the Trade for Profit market summary for Monday we spoked about the 1544.25 level being of interest.

S&P 500 futures make a new 2013 high of 1532.75

15 min ES
A new 2013 high was just made at 1531.75 +5.25 0.36% in the ES following a evening/night of sustained bidding and offer taking across the risk complex. The nasdaq future is higher to 2773 +13 points or 0.47% with resistance at 2780 an support at 2770.

NQ 15 minut
When looking at ES resistance you have 1534.50 up into 1540 with support at 1527.50 into 1518.75, below 18 = 1511. IF the 30 year bond can move below its overnight low of 143'16 the ES and NQ wil have the fuel they need to move a bit higher in the next hour into cash open.

Monday, March 4, 2013

Market summary for March 4th 2013

4 hour zoom ES. 
Last night i could have sworn the world was burning, but today the US session held it together and ended up posting a gain of .50 on the SPOOZ with the high for the week in the ES_F now 1527.50.

15 min ES
This high was met after the ES traded into 1508.50 -10 points sunday evening, the 10 handle rule worked converting 1511 back to support which provided the framework for a move into 1520+.

TFP Morning Letter For March 4th 2013

5 min ES
S&P 500 futures are @ 1515 -1.25 points up from a -10 loss around the 1508.25 low around 12am last night. The weakness across the risk complex came from fears over the Chinese real estate market overheating blah blah blah. Anyway support in the ES is 1511 followed by 1508.25, resistance is 1518 into 1520.

NQ 5 min 
The nasdaq is under resistance of 2750 though above support of 2733; currently the NQ is @ 2743.25 down 5.50 points. Over 22744 should mean a test of 2750 which is CYAN resistance.

Friday, March 1, 2013

Stanley Druckenmiller: Storm worse than '08 coming as seniors steal from youth

Hedge fund icon Stanley Druckenmiller sat down for a rare one-on-one interview with Bloomberg Television's Stephanie Ruhle, saying that he’s decided to speak out now because he sees 
"a storm coming, maybe bigger than the storm we had in 2008, 2010."
Druckenmiller said that the mushrooming costs of Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, with unfunded liabilities as high as $211 trillion, will bankrupt the nation's youth an pose a much greater danger than the debt currently being debated in Congress. Stanley goes onto say...
"While everybody is focusing on the here and now, there's a much, much bigger storm that's about to hit…I am not against seniors. What I am against is current seniors stealing from future seniors." video/transcript below the fold..

S&P 500 futures are lower as the Sequester/Austerity looms

ES 5 min 
Happy Friday, the futures are pointing toward a risk off scenario as the spooz (ES_F) is down 9 points or 0.60% to 1504 after the 1510 failed to hold as support overnight.

What is most notable about this morning is crude has continued its drop and traded 90.44 for the low, a new 2013 low. Support is not in crude until 90 at this point, under 90 it will get super sloppy.

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