Thursday, March 21, 2013

Market Summary For Thursday March 21, 2013

SP 500 E-mini Future

1 min ES.. note the 1545 break up 1 min trend 
"Da bonds" dominated the discussion within my circles of discussions... for what it is worth.

Referring back to the 1548 level from last night, it failed; resulting in the failure of 1540 with the new low to watch for support @ 1536.50.

The ES traded like a nit with around Cyprus headlines due to the depth being as shallow as a kiddie pool on a Carnival cruise ship. I would never.
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The 30 year traded consistently higher throughout the session following the morning break out over 143 into the 143'24 level where it currently resides +.30% as of this writing.

15 min ES
The dip buyers were out in force this morning carrying the ES back to 1543 resistance following the drop into 36.50.... The DIP game was not as easy today BUT we did, imo; fall a bit too fast under 45 & 40..

What i mean by this is... the downside (elevator down) price action was unsustainable & exacerbated by HFT slicing through the book with in a market 10 levels deep only 5k contracts, you see how things can move.

That being said.. under 36 we visit 1529.75.. below 29 we wil be back 1515-1520, especially if ZB keeps marching.....The only the chance the ES has to reverse despite the date the price moves back back over 1544 and the 30yr stays under 143'34.

FX & T-Complex
As mentioned above the 10's and 30''s have been moving with conviction in the upward general direction throughout the session, which in correlative terms is lopsided as the ZB is up .33% and the ES closed down 0.61%.

The past few weeks the correlation between ES and ZB has been .99 our of 1 meaning ZB down .25 ES up .25% so on and so forth.

1 min SPY vs TLT | CLICK for larger

Identifying the compression and diversion of this spread has provided a great intra-day indicator of direction/trend.

Though today the trade was not as easy a read in the AM, though as the day progressed ZB and ES diverged cleanly as pictured on the right.
4 hour ZB zoom.

That being said... if ZB continues higher ES will move closer to 1535 and into sell stops.  the DX as of this writing is higher by 0.03% @ 82.93.. CL bulls want this under 83.

Nasdaq 100 Mini Future
The Applesuace provided the juice needed to keep the NQ above the waterline due to ORCL and other large cap names such as MSFT and CSCO dragged their feet in sympathy.

The water line being 2765 though, the NQ did spike lower into 2761.20 during the mid afternoon, this makes 2760 important and probably a spot for sell stops to collect.

A break over 2775 is only way NQ can reverse, but to me it looks like 2765 will be tested again with a 2760 failure bringing 2755-2748 a likely target.

Apple shares closed higher by .65 @ 452.73 with the Wednesday morning high of 458 still acting as resistance. Apple over 458 puts tuesday highs of 460 into play, over 460 should be a nice surprise for weekly opex. likely will not happen.. under 450 its back to 445 in short order.

Crude Oil
30 min CL - note the arrow point @ the 91 level

Oil once again melted higher in a orderly fashion throughout Wednesday evening into Thursday morning, then the NYEX bid buster came into the market @ 93.34 @ 9:00 am ET.

Following this crush into 92.50 a inverse H&S was carved out (pictured below) which carried the right shoulder back to NYMEX Open, when then gave way to a collapse into 91.84.

WHICH was ridiculous for no concrete news beyond some nuclear talks in mid east.... BUT the 92.50 level I HAD spoken about prior is where the sell stops were hiding. Sure enough boom, if you played a sell stop @ 92.50 and covered under 91.90, you paid for a week @ the tables.
1 min CL. note direction of arrow
the low failed before the high was taken
out so price followed the arrow.

The 91.84 low was bought up violently into 92 which eventually the price ran clear into 92.60 scene of breakdown.. you see this reversion quite a bit, primarily do to the delta flipping like a dying mackerel 

That being said CL could reverse over 92.70 .. but imo will be offered into 92 until the price breaks up over .70.  A break break back under 92.25 means we visit 92, algo's love round numbers. Then under 92 its 91.84 before lights out into 90.. again.

R1: 1544.50 R1: 2770 R1: 92.70  R1: 440
R2: 1549.75 R2: 2780 R2: 93 R2: 442
S1: 1538 S1: 2760  S1: 92.50  S1: 438.50
S2: 1536.50 S2: 2755 S2: 92 S2: 436.25

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