Friday, March 22, 2013

The TFP Weekly S&P 500 Futures Recap -

SP 500 E-mini Future

4 hour ES 

Despite the sheer panic over Cyprus, the ES_F closed the week just about where it started @ 1553.75.

What this tells us is the market clearly consolidated and build a base around 1535 which was built upon throughout the week into 1554 highs following cash close Friday.

What do we expect for next week, well use the complex as gauge; if bonds continue to melt ES stands a high chance of moving back over 1560 to target all time ES highs over 1588 ES and

5 min ES
ON the flip side if the Cyprus 'fiasco' spills over (unlikely) into the flanking EU member countries, that ghastly word 'contagion' will be thrown around even more by the StalledWart et al.

The 1545 level remains the median price due to the mass it has gained by the volume traded @ the price the past week or so. Under we stay heavy with 1530's pulling over 1560's are pulling on price..

FX & T-Complex
1 hour ZB 
The 30 year muscled itself up against a 143'23 high this morning before relenting putting in a 3rd failure of highs this week following the gap up over the 143 resistance level Sunday evening following the Cyprus levy.

That being said, in honor of keeping it simple stupid.... below 143 means the price moves back to 142'16 before the Sunday night gap closes @ 141'29.

SPY vs TLT 1 year
IF the gap closes the TLT vs SPY break will be close to closing again, as picture divergent below...

This means in the ES we break over 1560. The dollar is on her own, but the lower dollar goes the more the inflation bid will come into the complex via macro-players.

BITcoin 1 year .. looks a bit extended if you ask me..
extended on the Cyprus panic. 
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