Tuesday, March 19, 2013

Trade for Profit Market update for March 19th 2013

SP 500 E-mini Future

15 min ES
Tuesday brought a different pattern than we are used to... that is... a dip off the open, bounce then collapse through the previous low into new lows of the session; which was 1531.75.

The line-in-the-sand remains @ 1529.75 from Monday, which if the level would have failed today a flush into 1520 would have been in order...this merely based on momentum.

In my summation we can count on 1535 holding into the evening locking the price into a box defined by 1544 on the upside.

Over 1544 takes us back to the AM ledge before Cyprus liquidity issues rattled the tape, above 1545 = 1552. Max pain for shorts which placed sunday evening is 1560, thus if the ball can be thrown up over 60's its going to cause a panic.  A break under 1520 is bad news for buyers, means 1505.

Keep in mind tomorrow we have the FOMC meeting announcement at 2:00 pm ET. Thus markets will likely be subdued in volume leading into the top of the 2:00 hour... if the rhetoric changes towards removing the punchbowl.... we probably fall below 29.75 if we had not already.. IF positive and the rhetoric does not change we probably stay bid into the Bernanke's press conference @ 2:30 pm ET.

FX & T-Complex
Daily DX.. straight up.. for two months 

Per our morning letter thoughts, Da' bonds bid Da' the risk hid.  The pinch over 142 in the ZB Sunday night foreshadowed whatever the media construed as the catalyst for the move lower today, Cyprus or not; bond prices put the hurt on the entire complex.....

Currently the ZB is bid @ 143'27 +.17% with resistance remaining at the intr-session high of 143'31... THis slight bid in the ZB has the ES down 3.75 points to 1538.50 -.20% so the correlation is still very much intact.
1 hour ZB

The DX is higher to 83.2435 +.04% with the high being 83.315 and buy stops lurking over in new 2013 high territory.

Based on the reaction of the risk complex the second the EU came out stating they will do whatever it takes to support Cyprus, sellers of defensive products are ready and willing as the DX fell 30 cents in a single print to below 83 from 83.27 following.

Nasdaq 100 Mini Future
5 min NQ
As expected the pre-market bid in AAPL into 460 was faded like the dashboard of a Datson pulling the NQ off 2800 exactly, which was mentioned as morning NQ resistance in the TPF morning letter.

The NQ did not find support under 2752 where Apple bottomed out around 450, a marginal bid came into the complex as bonds relented allowing for a intra day melt up into the 2783 level.
1 hour NQ- note uptrend purple

Currently the NQ is trading at 2775 with support for buy stops to lurk under @ 2755 and buy stops over 2790. Wait for a break over or under.

Crude Oil
5 min CL
The oil switch was flipped to the sell side PRECISELY @ 7:00 AM CT aS CL made a new march high of 94.47. Following this gasp of air CL proceeded to blow through all support levels to stop at 92.50.

A probe of sell stops under 92.50 played out into 92.38 though it appears there is a iceberg order holding up the boat at 92.50.

The 7 am CT HIGH of CL 
Currently CL is unchanged from the 2:30 PM ET close at 92.52, that means under 92.38 we move to 92, under = 91.50... for a reversal of fortune you need the DX and bond complex to relent in order to give some fuel to push the price up to 92.80..

A move over 93 would surely trigger some upside volume as that is the right shoulder break out from yesterday's inverse H&S.

R1: 1545 R1: 2780 R1: 92.75  R1: 938
R2: 1550 R2: 2790 R2: 93 R2: 940 
S1: 1535 S1: 2770 S1: 92.50 S1: 936 
S2: 1529.75 S2: 2765  S2: 92.38  S2: 931.60

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