Monday, March 18, 2013

The Cyprus mess... what's new?

SP 500 E-mini Future

30 min ES
We talked about the 1530 level being the line in sand and it appears others thought this as well thereby not a whole lot has changed from our Sunday update beyond the fact 1529.50 held as support.

Currently the minis are lower by 0.85% @ 1540.50 with the pinch level being 1542 for a target of 1548.
Want the TFP Morning Letter delivered to your inbox by 9 am ET? Subscribe Here for $25mo.
1 min ES
A break under 1529.50 means, based on momentum; we move back to 1524 in my opinion. This of course hinged on correlations, specifically bonds which are higher by 0.75%. Imagine that.

FX & T-Complex
15 min ZB
The 30, 10 year note futures and the US dollar index surged to month highs following the Cyprus bailout sunday evening which pushed equities and crude lower.  If you remember back to friday the 30 year bond pinched over monthly downtrending resistance at 141'16 Friday paving the way for the gap up Sunday.

Currently the 30 year bond future is higher by 0.73% to 142'29 with the high being 143'24 and support 142'26. A break over the high means ES surely will fail into overnight lows, though if 142'16trades ES should be firmly over 1540.

The DX trade as high as 83.111 Sunday evening after a massive gap up of 60 cents, currently the index is higher by 0.41 percent to 82.80. Support is 82.78 which if broken should give crude a boost back to 93.25.

Nasdaq 100 Mini Future
NQ 15 min 
Like you would expected the nasdaq 100 is lower though the 2748.25 level has held for the low an
overnight making the new line in sand 2750 .

Currently the NQ is off 19 points to 2771.50, the last dip in bonds helped the ES an NQ pop over their scene of crimes from last night. What i mean by this is, the NQ gapped to below 2770, the ES gapped to 1539 and now both indexes have reclaimed these levels.

I am placing 2773 as the pinch higher resistance level if broken to the upside, and 2760 as the support level before we move back to 2750. Under 2750 it is back to 2741.  Though much of this depends upon what the large components do, specifically Apple which is trading for 442.38 after closing 433.66 on Friday.

Crude Oil
15 min CL
Currently CL is lower by 0.92% to 92.96 though i believe the set up is pretty is simple in my opinion following the 92.50 level holding as support last night and this morning.

Below 92.50 we drop to 92.25 then 92. Resistance is 92.15 with  the pinch higher level of resistance @ 93.25.

The DX and CL are highly correlated this morning thus if the DX rises back into 83.30 watch crude for a break of 92.50.  Be contextually aware of your futures prices it really helps when battling for confidence in your trades in environments like today.

Like i said about shares of apple are down about a point to 442.02 from 433.66 close friday.. Apple needs to stay over 439.80 today or we probably will see 435. A break over should mean we test 445 with 445.50 being resistance for a break into 450. Highly doubt we see this today but always be aware your levels.

As you would expect financials are lower though nothing drastic, BAC is trading 12.37 down from .57 close. The XLF is lower by 20 cents to 18.25 with support at 18.20 and resistance 18.50.

Shares of RIG are lower to 52.80 after the board rejected the dividend plan and board appointees by the companies largest shareholding bully, Carly Icahn. I do not like RIG under 50 but over 50 i think it is fine, patience in this name will be rewarded in my opinion.

R1: 1541.50 R1:2770 R1:91.90 R1:940
R2: 1545.75 R2:2775 R2:92.15 R2:945
S1: 1540 S1:2750 S1:92.70 S1:936
S2: 1530 S2:2730 S2:92.50 S2:935

No content provided within the "trade for profit" or "TFP" morning letter & or market summary constitutes investment advice.  "Trade for Profit" is not a financial advisor & does not recommend the purchase of any stock, option, futures contract or offer advice on the suitability of any trade or investment. Actions you take as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement within this letter are your sole responsibility and at your discretion. Any Letter content is for educational purposes only.

Charts source: Think or Swim. TFP is not associated in anyway with TDAmeritrade or Think or Swim and makes no claims as such.  No REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL, OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE DISCUSSED WITHIN THIS LETTER. PRODUCTS AND SERVICES SHOULD BE USED AS A LEARNING AID. IF YOU DECIDE TO INVEST REAL MONEY, ALL TRADING DECISIONS ARE YOUR OWN.  PLEASE do not reproduce or re-transmit without explicite permission from TFP owners. 

Newer Post Older Post Home