Wednesday, March 20, 2013

Market Summary for March 20th 2013

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SP 500 E-mini Future
30 min ES
 Today played out as nicely as possible when taking into account the FOMC and a curiously strong dollar fighting with curiously weak bond prices.

Nonetheless the ES closed higher by 7 points after trading into our morning letter target of 1555 IF the ES broke over, thus the HOD is now resistance @ 1555.75.

1 min ES

 *note in the chart below the sharp sell off following the high of the day print @ 14:45hrs.  I find trend reversals curious in regards to (algo influence) when they occur on a round number on the time line @ a round number on the time axis.. A example of this is as the 94.47 high in CL yesterday precisely @ 7:00 am CT before the sharp 2 dollar drop.

 With all the being said.. based on the chart to the right a break under 1548 will trigger a move into 1545.. .if 45 fails it is back to 40.. if 40 fails.. back to 35... Pretty simple, i know you want some fancy formula or trader pseudonyms but it really is 5 point rotations dominating the price action. Simplicity or complication does not matter if you P&L is green.

FX & T-Complex
30 min ZB
What struck me as different was the strength in the DX today following FOMC, different does not necessarily mean bad; actually is bullish.

Bullish how? Well the fact the FED is still sticking to their hawkish views of removing the punch bowl as data improves is reflecting in the value of the dollar....
5 min DX note the gap under
Monday low 

Less dilution of the dollar = stronger dollar and a strong USA. On top of the DX strength you have to take into account the fact the index is up for a solid two straight months so a pullback from profit taking might not really affect correlative pricing when speaking to historical correlations.

Nasdaq 100 Mini Future
1 min NQ
The NQ was again weighed down by the mass of the Applesauce spilling back to the 450 level. Currently NQ futures are lower to 2784.50 following a pretty foul quarterly report @ ORCL.

This means 2780 is the line in sand before we lurch into the the RED box which shows a gap into 2766 tough 2770 i think will see some support if it does trade.

5 min NQ 
2804 is now resistance which is where the NQ traded in the seconds before ORCL fell out of bed, the NQ fell 20 points straight into 2785. As we speak the 2784 level has failed thus we are into the red box,  we shall see if a supportive bid comes in.

If apple fails 450 tomorrow the NQ sauce will be spilling all over 2760.

Crude Oil
15 min CL .. a H&S is arguable neck @ 92.50 
A fairly constructive upward trending overnight session from Tuesday lows of 92.50 gave way to the usual AM NYMEX 'crush' from a pre-NYMEX open high 93.45.

The CL price was taken down into the 92.50 level, though true to form... the level held like a champ..

BUT keep in mind the longer 92.50 holds the greater the mass becomes of the sell stops located under the level.. SO IF 92.38-50 fails with conviction i can almost guarantee you will see a drop into 92 shortly thereafter.

That being said upside resistance to watch for buy stops over is 93.54 which will thing bring the Tuesday morning high of 94.47 into resistance . OVER = 94.75 then 95. IF DX relents further should solidify the BID barring any other macro news.

R1: 1550.50 R1: 2790 R1: 93.54  R1: 945
R2: 1555.75 R2: 2798  R2: 93.75  R2: 947 
S1: 1548 S1: 2780 S1: 93.25 S1: 944 
S2: 1545 S2: 2770 S2: 93  S2: 943.50
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