Thursday, March 14, 2013

TFP market summary for march 14th 2013 | $SPX

SP 500 E-mini Future

5 min ES
Another 2013 high of 1557.25 was place by the ES this afternoon following a lackluster session which actually had many individual stocks acting out independently from the indexes.

I find this different and def a positive, will look to see how stocks perform tomorrow on a individual basis, rational value seeking markets could be upon us instead of capital conservation.

A weak dollar and strong bonds did not phase the ES today, surprisingly  which puts me in defensive mode as the uptrend is in jeopardy of being pushed below 1550 if 1555 were to fail with conviction setting off a cascade of back to the thick lime green line @ 1550. Then comes 1547.75 then 1542. Basically just reverse the price action from monday till today.

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If 1557 can trade again tonight and 1555 can convert to support 1560 would be the logical place to offer the ES if you are long, this will also coincide with the SPX reaching all time highs of 1576.09. Which when met i would guess the faders will step back onto the tape hard and the true test of the ALL MIGHTY TRIPLE TOP will be on.

If we break over all time highs and run on good data/news you can bet we could see a +3% day across the board as shorts are murdered and macro funds jump on a generational break out. Or we fail miserably. but i doubt this happens.

FX & T-Complex
15 min ZB
The 30 year came into today's session offered into a 140'24 low which acted as a head of a inverse H&S which broke out into 141'21 downtrending resistance as noted on the right by the purple line.

Currently the 30 year is bid @ 141'16 +.13% as 6J supported 10.40 and the DX fell to 82.77. A move over 141'25 could cause a pretty violent squeeze into 142

If bonds keep pushing high the uptrend in the ES could be in jeopardy under 1554 primarily due to the fact for the last 1.5 weeks or so the DX has been trading inverse the ZB.. What i mean is  bonds are bid while the DX is offered which is not good for risk in my opinion..

Nasdaq 100 Mini Future
30 min NQ
Apple again dictated the trend of the NQ today which was sideways almost the entire session.

The levels remains the same with 2810 remaining as resistance to watch for buy stops over.. 2795 as support, 2790 then 2782.

Any break over 2830 with conviction will easily  trigger 2817 highs from last week due to the fact the NQ has consolidated for 10 sessions over 2790.
We need the big components to play together peacefully to see the said higher prices, though in the face of today's downgrade of AMZN the index remained resilient.

Crude Oil
5 min CL 
Oil traded like a nitwit again today after racing into highs Wednesday evening only to fail at 93 resistance all the way back to a session low of 92 shortly after NYMEX floor open.

The 92 pivot held and acted as the head of a inverse H&S which carried the price into 93.20 after the 92.75 congestion zone was broken as floor session wrapped up.

So once again the crude gods cleared both sides of the book every single day this week meaning CL's price traded over the session high then traded below the session low then trade back over the high of the session, these are 1 dollar moves not 20 cents thus BIG money is being churned.

My take 93.43 is the lever where buy stops reside which if triggered the price could squeeze with momentum into 94. ON the reverse side if 93 fails again, its back to 92.75 pre-floor close area.

R1: 1555.50 R1: 2807 R1: 93.25  R1: 950
R2: 1557.75 R2: 2810 R2: 93.41 R2: 955
S1: 1555 S1: 2795 S1: 93.16 S1: 945
S2: 1549 S2: 2788 S2: 93 S2: 940

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