Sunday, April 28, 2013

Ken Langone on Obama Admin: "....I'm sorry to say, is anti-business"

Billionaire financier and Home Depot founder Ken Langone guest-hosted Bloomberg TV's "Market Makers" today and discussed the U.S. economy, the Obama administration, generational theft, along with Wall Street banks and director pay.
 On generational theft: "I like to get a bunch of old geezers in the room and say, you're on an island with your grandchild. You have one meal left. One of you is going to starve to death. What are you as a grandfather going to do? Everyone says, I give the food to my grandchild. They are not doing that now. We are not doing that now." 
 On the Obama administration: "I think the administration, I'm sorry to say, is anti-business. I don't know, I can't prove it, my opinion -- my gut says, 'if you're a business man, we don't like you.'" 
 On Jamie Dimon: "I love Jamie. As a person. I know him well personally. He's probably the finest CEO across any business in America and probably in the world." 
 On bank director pay: "First of all, I'm a serial over payer. Ask Elliott Spitzer. That is why he came after me. I won. I beat him bad." "I think the administration, I'm sorry to say, is anti-business.

Tuesday, April 23, 2013

Former Congressman Ron Paul on Bitcoin: "I have my reservations...."

Former Congressman Ron Paul (R-TX) told Bloomberg TV's Erik Schatzker and Sara Eisen today that he is
"concerned about the erraticness of the dollar. The dollar is up, the dollar is down. We print a lot of dollars. The dollar gets devalued. That is really the concern. If people think the gold price up and down is a reflection of something wrong with gold, no, I say it is something wrong with the dollar."
On Bitcoin, Paul said,

 "To tell you the truth, it's little bit too complicated. If I can't put it in my pocket, I have some reservations about that."  

The $126billion tweet that never happend of 2013

1 min $SPX of 'crash'
I thought tweet reading algo's were products of conspiracy? no?...

The events of today refute this thesis.

As a group compromised the Associated Press twitter feed stating the President had been hurt in an attack of some sort.

 Subsequently sending the equity index futures lower by 1% on massive volume in seconds only to recover fully in the minutes following.  Interconnectivity proving not so beneficial. Find a PDF of today's TFP Letter below. God speed. Subscribe here.

Monday, April 22, 2013

S&P 500 futures are higher ahead of Monday open, T-complex bid

SP 500 E-mini Future
5 min ES 
Good morning, happy Monday my friends. As i type the ES is higher by 7 points to 1554.50 with 1557.50 acting as resistance with the 1560 level the first head level the price must climb to really put some extension on this pinch over the white line we talked about this past Thursday. 

ON the reverse side 1550 is support with 1546.50 being the last line in sand before we see 1540, so pick your poison. IMO i believe it will be easier to trade a break up or break down under the two prices discussed above, all priced derived from the 5m in ES.

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Friday, April 19, 2013

TFP Morning Letter for April 19, 2013 | $SPX $IBM

SP 500 E-mini Future
5 min ES
 Well well well the second after i sit down at my machine the futures complex bid falls off the page, not exactly sure what spooked the tape but the ES fell from 1546 to 1539.50 very quickly.

 Currently the ES is higher by 0.47% or 7 points to 1541 with support at 1438.  If you remember to last night we were targeting a 1540 break out, which occurred but has now been erased; profits when and *if you can is the only solution.

15 min ES

Resistance to watch for a pinch over is 1547 on the 5 min and 1543.35 on the 1 min, under 1538 means 35's under means 30 which leaves the only line of defense 1529.75 which if fails its going to flash into 1 points of sell stops.

Gun to my head if apple starts making lows off the open again the S&P's are not going to be able to keep the ship floating on its own, especially after soft IBM earnings yesterday.

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Thursday, April 18, 2013

TFP market summary for Thursday April 18, 2013 $SPX

15 min ES
The green red pattern was defeated today as the SPX closed lower by 10.40 points or 0.67% marking a 63 point drop from the all time high achieved this past thursday at 1593.35. 

The declines today came after the futures greeted traders with green paint this morning only to fade as the 30 year surged from 146.26 to 148'14 crushing the ES into 1530.75, which the low happend to coincide with AAPL printing 489.74. 

5 min ES zoom
Currently the ES futures are higher by 5.50 points to 1539.50 with 1540.25 being the resistance we are watching for pinch over into 1541.25 cyan 5 min resistance, over = 144-45 with overhead resistance clear up at 1548.25 for a full reversal potential, but lets not get ahead of ourselves. 

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Futures higher ahead of cash open despite weak jobless claims | $SPX

SP 500 E-mini Future
5 min ES
SP 500 Futures are higher only slightly to 1551.75 with 1552 being immediate resistance and 1555.25 being pinch resistance on the 5 time frame. 

Support is 1550 into 1548 and 1545, under 45 = 1540 again so on and so fourth. NOthing has changed level wise despite the fact it is a new day, i could repeat myself and type the same thing day after day, or you all can learn from it. 

30 min ES
As i type weekly jobless claims have hit the tape showing 4k more people claimed unemployment this week, so now the ES is trading for 1550, GOLD feel back under 1400 after trading 1402 to 1391.75. Gols is currently still up 10.30 points or 0.74%, support is 1390.

Read the rest of the Letter by Subscribing Here.

Wednesday, April 17, 2013

Market Summary for Wednesday April 17, 2013

SP 500 E-mini Future
5 min ES 
 Taking back Wednesday was there theme as it has not stopped raining in Chicago and bonds have stopped rising for two days. The bonds again were the underlying force keeping a consistant heavy ES offer due to the arbitragers, though what is new?

The ES failed the 1565 level early this morning leading into a cascade of selling into 1538, .50 below Monday's low.

SO yes if you are good at math you can deduct monday from today's #'s and you see Tuesday has been erased. Tonights line in sand has been placed @ 1540 with 38's being the event horizon before 1529.75 comes up fast. Under 29.75's i sincerly believe we could see 1500 shortly after, especially if the break of 29.75 is coupled with..

1. declining euro
2. falling bond yields
3. apple continuing to decline

monthly AAPL
Currently the ES is trading for 1546.75 with resistance running up into 1548 and 1550 which a trade over would possibly create a pinch because as i type crude has broke 86 and now rallied clear up to 86.69 which has been closely telegraphed by 6E rising .32% into 1.3055.

This 1.3055 level will act as resistance tonight. so if it breaks over 1.3055 yesterday's 6E high will come into play.

Read the rest of the Letter by Subscribing Here.

The Manic market rolls on as futures decline 12 points ahead of cash open ato 1557

SP 500 E-mini Future
5 min ES. note RED uptrend break

NQ 1 hour. 2800 support
Monday was red, Tuesday was green, Wednesday is red, see a pattern here? The pattern is telling me the index is confused and has no leadership, much like out country. Currently the ES is lower by 10.50 pts or 0.69% to 1558.25 with 1555 remaining as support + line in sand, under = 1550 quickly.

The manic market rolls on. When looking @ the ES for upside, a move back over 1560.25 is what is needed to realigned the trend to put 1565 as resistance before pinch resistance @ 1570.25 comes back into play, yesterday's resistance.

I must say i am fairly surprised by crude and equity weakness as gold is unchanged and crude is down 1.41%, but this is the market and you must trade what you have got not what you want.

Read the rest of the Letter by Subscribing Here.

Tuesday, April 16, 2013

Market Summary for Tuesday April 16, 2013 | (SPX)

1hr ES. PINCH over white line
The markets bounced back today, do not get excited this is largely just that, reactionary. Though it is hard to ignore a 1.60% move as well as the nearly 3% bounce in gold coupled with a VIX down 19%.

Currently the ES unchanged at 1568.75 with 5 min support remaining at 1650-59.25 bracketed by 1565-67 resistance. If bonds continue you to wash the slide, equities could play a repeat of last night.. ie grind higher into stop regions.  

5 min ES
The dollar continued it's assault on lower prices today, specifically following a large sell ticket punched around 7:03am CT; the price declined another 40 cents following this early sell as the Euro rallied into the 1.32 metric further boosting the equity bid.

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S&P 500 futures reclaim 1555 ahead of Tuesday open, Gold trading 1398

SP 500 E-mini Future
5 min ES
"bounce" is the theme this morning after housing starts came in above expectations (1036MM, Exp. 930K), though i think most of this move up off 1538.75 into 1558 is reactionary as the Boston attack really spooked the market.

That being said if you rode up the overnight move, book your profits and bring it back to center court so you will be ready for the next move.

15 min ES
Currently the ES is trading for 1558 +14.25 points or 0.92% with 1560 being resistance, this comes after we highlighted on the TFP Insider feed the 1550.25 level as a pinch level.

Support is 1555 into 1550 with 1545 being the last line of defense before 1540-1538 comes back into play.

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Monday, April 15, 2013

Market Summary for Monday April 15, 2013 | Gold Collapse of 2013

SP 500 E-mini Future
Daily GC

GC Daily zoom

The bond market was business as usual throughout most of today's session while the equity market and commodity markets continued to slide.  Business in front and party in back?  

The bonds seemed to have priced in the equity pullback from record highs of mid last week so the 2.5% drop in the ES is not as alarming as the near 20% drop in Silver and 15% drop in gold the last 2 sessions.

In my opinion the level which GC broke to ultimately triggering this move was 1537.60 on friday.

Currently gold is down 28 points or 2% @ 1333.23 after 1355 2 hours ago, 1320 is now the line in sand before likely 1300 gets tagged with a brand of a 240 point drop in essentially 48 hours, excluding the weekend. Electronic markets. do this. notice most of this drop was off the floor volume anyway..

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S&P 500 drops to to 1571.75 on poor Empire state survey

SP 500 E-mini Future
5 min ES
 The story of the night is commodities, which have for lack of a better word collapsed; gold specifically down 84 points or 5.60 percent to 1417 of this writing.

Also as of this writing the Empire manufacturing survey just hit the tape with a expectation of 9.2 but 3.1 printed.

This massive miss dropped the ES from 1578 down to 1575 which i will put as support though 1571.75 is the actual line in sand as that is the two week ES low and the overnight low.  On the upside a move over 1580 will surely push late shorts.

weekly GC note the two red lines under support
Beyond commodities weighing on the tape, you have the bond market pushing higher with the 30 year bond at highs of 148'02 up 0.10%.

The long stocks and bonds pair trade might be closing today due to the fact equities feel much different than the past few days.

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Friday, April 12, 2013

Marc Faber: "gold may fall to $1300 before a rebound"

Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, said that gold may fall to $1300 before a rebound.  He appeared on Bloomberg TV's "Street Smart" with Trish Regan and Adam Johnson today. Faber said:
"I love the fact that gold is finally breaking down. That will offer an excellent buying opportunity."  On whether a deflationary environment is possible right now."

Faber also said:
"In the economy of the cuckoo people that populate central banks, everything is possible."

A look at gold Futures following Friday's drop & today's 130 point drop

monthly GC. same chart as from late 2011
Now what?.. THESE were our previous GC_F thoughts.. Bonds going to cool off or have the tables been turned? **turned** Silver down 12 percent.. GC down 10. 1355 low.
Daily GC.. broke down into 3/14/2011 LOW
Weekly GC
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Wednesday, April 10, 2013

Market Summary for Wednesday April 10, 2013 | $SPX

1 min ES
The S&P 500 as you probably already know made all time highs today of 1589.07 shortly after every single media outlet fired off the "All time highs" alert.

The buying came in after a leaked FOMC minutes shocked the tape into 1564 lows 3 minutes before the scheduled 9:00 am ET release.

TFP morning letter for Wednesday April 10, 2012

SP 500 E-mini Future
5 min ES 
 The ES is higher to 1567.75 after trading into yesterday's high of 1569 early Wednesday morning, thus over 69 = 72. Currently 1565 is support with 1559.25 being the line in sand before we are into Tuesday morning dip territory.

That being said we had a bond market that steadily sold off throughout the night and morning helping to keep the ES orderly; the 30 year bond is down 0.26% to 146'29 with 1446'10 being support of 146'10 to watch for sell stops under.

Tuesday, April 9, 2013

Market Summary for Tuesday April 9, 2013

30 min ES
 Today's session was a nearly 100% repeat of Monday's save the drop from 2013 highs of 1569 into 1561 where the ES currently resides. Our TFP morning letter target of 1568 was met today so if any of you rode that wave, nice work.

The tape today was initially softened by the 30 year and 10 year bond prices pushing higher in the hour leading up into cash open. This softening 'phenomenon' is highly related to derivative tied ETF's which are out of control in their reach, the program traders know this and exploit.

futures higher ahead of earnings & bernanke speech

SP 500 E-mini Future
30 min ES
The ES has remained relatively quiet throughout monday night and tuesday morning, which likely will not last much longer if the bonds start wiggling. Beyond the ES, the risk complex is relatively tame following upbeat AA earnings after the bell Monday

Currently the ES is higher by 2.50 points to 1562.75 after making a high of 1563.75 late Monday night. This makes the upside line in sand the highs of the evening with a target over @ 1565-68.

Monday, April 8, 2013

Market Summary for Monday April 8, 2013 | $AA

SP 500 E-mini Future
5 min ES
The spooz started Monday off in a frenzy as a confused bond market tried to digest the YEN arbs trying to hedge their exposure after another night of bid pounding of yen futures.

What started the fall in the ES was a 30 min bid whack precisely @ 8:00am CT which follow through into all the way into support of 1543.75 which was when the 30 year finally went offered @ 147'28.

Futures higher ahead of Alcoa Earnings - Happy Monday

SP 500 E-mini Future
5 min ES
 Good morning, and happy monday the futures are higher and the bonds are lower.  On the surface it appears many of the same themes from last week will be at work today; such as bonds lower market higher.

30 min ES
Currently the ES is higher by 4.50 points to 1550.50 after trading into 1552 which makes this the upside line insand before the ES pinched back to 1555 resistance from Thursday.  5 minute support in the ES is 1548 with 1545 as the line in sand before we move into 1540-1533 (Friday's low).

Friday, April 5, 2013

A Leaked non-farm payroll miss sent bond soaring into 2013 highs

SP 500 E-mini Future
5 min ES
 I will keep this short and sweet, NFP came in @ +88k vs 190k, the largest miss in nearly 4 years. 

If you want all the commentary on doom and gloom you know where to look, if you want price levels we got them.

Currently the spooz is lower by 1 percent to 1536.50 after trading into a low of 1534, if you refer back to last nights post we outlined what we expected to happend to the T following the event of a miss. We surmised a miss was not baked into stocks, well the spooz fell 20 handles in a print.

Thursday, April 4, 2013

Pre March NFP Market Summary for April 4, 2013 | $SPX

5 min ES 
"Da' Bonds" is all i really have to say about today's price action but alas, the show must go on.

The show today ended on a green note (SPX added 0.40% to close at 1559.98), but caution still remains to the wind as the monthly jobs situation tomorrow @ 8:30 AM ET will reveal the likely catalyst for the large drop in bond yields over past week.

Hank Paulson to Bloomberg TV: had to "pinch himself" in reaction to news Fannie Mae record profits

Former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson spoke with Judy Woodruff in an interview airing on Bloomberg Television at 9:30 pm/ET this Friday. Paulson said that he:
"had to pinch himself"
in reaction to the news that Fannie Mae generated record profits last year. 
 "I could hardly believe what I was reading."
Paulson also said that the U.S. needs to slow the growth of entitlement programs and raise more tax revenue by closing loopholes:
"We may need more revenues…This should be part of doing something with entitlements, because I think to just keep postponing entitlement reform is a big mistake."
Conversations with Judy Woodruff" airs Friday evenings at 9:30 pm/ET with repeats over the weekend, including Sundays at 10:30 am/ET. Video below..

Weekly jobless claims come above expectations S&P futures remain higher by 2 points .50

SP 500 E-mini Future
5 min ES

 We had a miss in initial claims and continuing claims, weekly that is; of  385K vs Exp of 353K. This print sent the 30 year over 146'05, its highest level in nearly 3 months. What is funny is DESPITE all this panic the ES is higher by 2.75 points or 0.18 percent  down from 1556 pre-claims.

Wednesday, April 3, 2013

Market summary for Wednesday April 3, 2013 $SPY

1 min ES
 Today's decline of 1% started with the leaked ADP figure followed up by a miss, then a ISM miss. This compounded itself into a 1.25% drop into 1544 before it was all said and done. 

Currently the ES is sitting over 1545 support at 1548.50 which puts 1550 as resistance and 1545 support.. Draw a channel.. break up or down that is your trade direction. 

Futures are unchanged following ADP employment mix - morning letter

SP 500 E-mini Future
30min ES
As of this writing the ES is unchanged at 1565 following a ADP employment figure miss (ADP +158K vs Exp +200), which clearly was leaked about 20 seconds before the rest of the market as bonds broke down into lows briefly before ripping into highs post number.
5 min ES

1565 remains support with 1567.5 resistance before 1568 gets tested, this wont happen if bonds keep getting bid up every other second. Down side remains the same, 1560 then 1555 then 1550.

Wait for a break up or break down, in middle we chop senselessly.

Tuesday, April 2, 2013

Overnight Market Summary For Tuesday April 2, 2013 | $SPXY

The S&P's marched into a new 2013 and 5 year high of 1568 this morning before giving up 80% of their gains as Apple weakness once again influenced the entire tape.  
5min ES
The spooz is currently trading down .25 points to 1564.25 as the DX rises to 83.235, taking out morning resistance of DX from Monday.  Which is funny because Copper made a high of 3.386 and GC dropped to 1563.10 down 7points all as the DX continues to rise... 

David Stockman on The Federal Reserve: is "off the deep end"

David Stockman, former director of the Office of Management and Budget, told Tom Keene on “Bloomberg Surveillance” yesterday that the Federal Reserve is
"off the deep end with this money printing, which is dramatically distorting and deforming the financial markets."
On Glenn Hubbard, Stockman said,
"He is a brilliant guy who told Bush to cut taxes in 2001, cut taxes in 2003, oh, why you are at it, go have two unfinanced wars and don’t worry about the deficit because it doesn’t matter. 
This is the kind of advice Republicans are getting from the likes of Professor Hubbard, and it is no wonder that we are heading towards national bankruptcy. It has got to stop."

TFP morning letter for March 2, 2013

SP 500 E-mini Future
5 min ES
 Another night of disconnects has greeted traders once again.... The ES futures are higher by 6.25 .40% to 1562.25 after the 1555 level held as support which puts 1565 as resistance and 1558.50 as immediate support.

I can already tell today is going to be another day of drifting between buy an sell stops so if you rode the overnight id book your profits and wait for either a break of new highs or a break down below 1552.50 to take a short in hopes of 1550 failing.

Monday, April 1, 2013

Market Summary for Monday April 1, 2013

SP 500 E-mini Future
15 min ES
I will chalk today's wonky action up to end of quarter adjustments coupled with a lighter than normal volume considering the Friday holiday and today is the first of the month.

Behind the surface of today's tape was a curiously strong T-complex on lower than average volume kept pressure on the large cap names, specifically AAPL which traded down some 3% to below 431, taking the nasdaq with it.

S&P futures unchanged ahead of US open.

SP 500 E-mini Future
15 min ES
 Good morning, i hope everyone enjoyed their mini holiday; now time to get back to work. Currently the ES is higher by 0.75 points to 1563.50 which puts Thursday's high of 1564.50 as immediate resistance with a target of 1565.  

The weak 30 year as well as moderately weak dollar are helping to keep the easy steady over 1557.75 support. 1555 is the line in sand before we see 1555-1550 act as support before we revisit Thursday's lows  of 1545.75.

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