Tuesday, April 2, 2013

TFP morning letter for March 2, 2013

SP 500 E-mini Future

5 min ES
 Another night of disconnects has greeted traders once again.... The ES futures are higher by 6.25 .40% to 1562.25 after the 1555 level held as support which puts 1565 as resistance and 1558.50 as immediate support.

I can already tell today is going to be another day of drifting between buy an sell stops so if you rode the overnight id book your profits and wait for either a break of new highs or a break down below 1552.50 to take a short in hopes of 1550 failing.
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GC 5 min 
A break over 1565 = 1570 a break under 1555 = 1552.50 into 1550. Also as of this writing gold has fallen out of bed 20 points from 1605 into 1585.
15 min ES. note purple support @

FX & T-Complex
The bonds are lower and the dollar higher, this is 100% inverse last night which was bonds higher dollar lower in equal percentage terms.. Currently the DX is higher by 0.06% to 82.945 up from a low of 82.645, the ZB is lower by 0.11% to 143'23 after making a high of 145'04 late Monday night.

That being said the weakness in the ZB has helped keep the ES over 1555 but the DX retrcing up off lows has kept the clamp on crude, gold and silver.  My take in ZB is if 144'17 does not fail itno the 144'12 pinch gap from Monday the ZB will melt right back up to 145 as the buyer of bonds seesm to never leave the tape.

Over the past two weeks if you bought every single dip in bonds you never lost if you held for 24 hours each trade, you always had a chance to get out for a profit.  Same with the DX every single dip in the DX is bought and paid for by profits from dips in commodity prices.

Nasdaq 100 Mini Future
Pretty much the same levels, same data and same story for the NQ as the prices have not changed much in a month. Currently the NQ is trading for 2803.75 down from a 2807 high with support at 2800.

Yesterday's low under 2785 held throughout the night which eventually converted 2790 to support for a move up over 2800, again. If 2800 holds the next resistance is 2810 then 2815.75, Monday morning highs. Of course all of this is hinged on the one stock we are all sick of hearing about, Apple.

Shares of Apple are lower in pre-market to 427.91 down from a 428.91 close Monday. The low is 425.90 thus sell stops WILL be in play below 425 if you want to take a shoort down into 415.

If apple keeps melting then NQ will stay under 2800 eventually making its way to 2785 if no other components pick up Apple's slack, they did not yesterday.

Crude Oil
5 min. showing failure of 96.60
Oil has done nothing quick overnight with 96.61 being the low to watch or sell stops under into 96.50 and the high to watch for buy stops over 97.22.

Since the DX moved up off its lows all morning, CL has been using the 97 level as fulcrum to slam stops over and under whenever the order book tips one way or another.

Thus CL will meander in sideways between 97.20 and 96.80.... large range i know but there is no trend i see, so wait for a break up or break down.

Under 96 = 95.50, over 97.20 = 97.54.

R1: 1565.50 R1: 2805 R1: 96.60  R1: 942
R2: 1570 R2: 2816 R2: 97.20 R2: 945 
S1: 1555 S1: 2795 S1: 96.50  S1: 940 
S2: 1552.50 S2: 2785 S2: 96.25  S2: 937 

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