Monday, April 8, 2013

Futures higher ahead of Alcoa Earnings - Happy Monday

SP 500 E-mini Future

5 min ES
 Good morning, and happy monday the futures are higher and the bonds are lower.  On the surface it appears many of the same themes from last week will be at work today; such as bonds lower market higher.

30 min ES
Currently the ES is higher by 4.50 points to 1550.50 after trading into 1552 which makes this the upside line insand before the ES pinched back to 1555 resistance from Thursday.  5 minute support in the ES is 1548 with 1545 as the line in sand before we move into 1540-1533 (Friday's low).

That being side i think we have upside to worry about not so much downside, but as you know anything can change on a dime; especially with AA earnings kicking off the season after the close. Currently shares of AA are higher pre-market to 8.35 from a 8.24 close Friday.

FX & T-Complex
5 min ZB. note arrows 
As mentioned above the bonds are lower led by the ZB which is down 0.25% to 147'19 with 147'15 being the line in sand to watch for sell stops below if the price approaches. This puts the ES_F in line with the T-complex as the ES is higher by 0.26%.

Obviously a cooperating correlation helps to provide a roadmap for the day, though keep in mind the Japanese YEN weakness could also be a factor in providing a supportive bid across the entire risk complex. The BOJ announced last night they will be buying $12billion $ in long dates securities this month which sent Japanese equities soaring and the 6J lower by 1.23%.

Currently the DX is higher by 0.12% to 82.705, down from a 82.923; which is odd because 6E is also higher. This is the one correlation that is a bit off likely do the fact 6J is off so much, id like to see DX lower to help solidify crude's bid.

The weakness in the 6J has helped to keep 6E bid over 1.30, which was converted to support around 2am this morning.  Watch for buy stops over 1.3044 which if coincides with ZB falling into lows below 147'15; the ES could really see a strong bid so be prepared. Obviously if 6E turns down and bonds turn up the ES will become o

Crude Oil
5 min CL
In my opinion oil futures are higher by 93.25 +.69% due to the fact 6J is lower, this theme has been working more overnight as it is harder to see this correlation during the regular session due to the fact oil tends to exaggerate on the upside on downside. 

Resistance i will put at 93.75 high of the session thus far with buy stops into the 94 scene of crime from the Thursday morning breakdown which led to a 2% drop. Support is 93 even below the price could easily fall to 92.50 with 92 being the line in sand before the month low of 91.91 becomes a concern.
15 min CL

My take final take on today is, consolidation + profit taking was the theme last week as the end of the quarter/beginning of quarter trading really distorted the tape; thus i expect some constructive action today fuel by historical correlations.

R1: 1552.50 R1: 2775  R1: 93.75  R1: 927 
R2: 1556.25 R2: 2780 R2: 94 R2: 930 
S1: 1550 S1: 2762  S1: 93.25  S1: 923.50
S2: 1545 S2: 2755  S2: 93 S2: 920 

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