Monday, April 1, 2013

S&P futures unchanged ahead of US open.

SP 500 E-mini Future

15 min ES
 Good morning, i hope everyone enjoyed their mini holiday; now time to get back to work. Currently the ES is higher by 0.75 points to 1563.50 which puts Thursday's high of 1564.50 as immediate resistance with a target of 1565.  

The weak 30 year as well as moderately weak dollar are helping to keep the easy steady over 1557.75 support. 1555 is the line in sand before we see 1555-1550 act as support before we revisit Thursday's lows  of 1545.75.

My take, the ES goes higher if the 30 year breaks under 144 and the DX moves closer to 83 support. Also keep in mind today is the first trading session of April so there will be fund flows fighting the ebb and flow of the market.

FX & T-Complex
15 min ZB
As mentioned above the 30 year bond has just ticked on its session low of 144' and held thus sell stops are likely to be accumulating under the metric.

A break under 144' could fuel a upside move into buy stops in the ES 1565+, but bonds really have a ways to drop before the ES really starts getting bid up.

Currently the DX is lower by 0.04 cents to 83.135 with the low to watch before sell stops at 83.05. The 83 level has held for a week now which means under 83 should help to drive commodity prices a bit higher. DX could reverse to the upside over 83.20 clamping further on crude.

Nasdaq 100 Mini Future
1 hour NQ 
The NQ is higher by 3 points to 2814 with the high being 2815.75 to watch for buy stops into 2820. Remember last week the resistance to break was 2810, this means support is now 2810-2800.

In order for a break over 2820, the NQ will need all the components on the same page; specifically AAPL. W

hat i mean by this is, the NQ trades like a choppy beast if one or more major components are trading against the trend; such as AAPL moving straight down off open while its peers exhibit relative strength.

Crude Oil
15 min CL. note arrow under 95.60 
Oil is lower to 96.52 down 0.73% after trading into buy stops over Thursday's high into a new high of 97.80 off Sunday evening open. A break over 97.80 will trigger a move into 98 though at this rate crude will need the DX to fall below 83 to make any upside a reality due to the nature of the slide all night/morning.

The low is 96.42 thus sell stops will take hold of the price if the low were to fail into 96.25 with 96.00 being the line in sand. A break under 96 = 95.50 as CL is still trading in .50 fits and starts, profit from it.

A reversal in crude will occur if somehow CL can meander back up over 97, this will put the squeeze on overnight faders; but gun to my head says 96.25 is going to be tested and likely fail which was the low from Thursday as well as the head of a inverse H&S pictured above.

Shares of apple are slightly higher to 443.50 up from a 442.66 close Thursday; 444 is resistance 450 is the pinch level. 440 is line in sand support. Below = back to year lows for the name.

Shares of BBRY are higher to 14.63 after close at 14.45 Thursday, watch for buy tops over 14.70 for a possible squeeze into 15.

Texas Instruments raised its lower end guidance which puts Thursday's high of 35.50 as resistance. I am looking for a break over and hold to give a long signal. under 35.40 i do not like it.

R1: 1565 R1: 2820  R1: 96.75  R1: 948 
R2: 1558.75 R2: 2830  R2: 97  R2: 951 
S1: 1557.50 S1: 2810 S1: 96.50  S1: 945.50 
S2: 1550 S2: 2800 S2: 96.25  S2: 942.50

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