Tuesday, April 9, 2013

futures higher ahead of earnings & bernanke speech

SP 500 E-mini Future

30 min ES
The ES has remained relatively quiet throughout monday night and tuesday morning, which likely will not last much longer if the bonds start wiggling. Beyond the ES, the risk complex is relatively tame following upbeat AA earnings after the bell Monday

Currently the ES is higher by 2.50 points to 1562.75 after making a high of 1563.75 late Monday night. This makes the upside line in sand the highs of the evening with a target over @ 1565-68.

1 hour ES
Downside levels to watch are 1559.25 as immediate support with 1555 being the line in-sand before the price enteres the break out level of yesterday afternoon @ 1552.50.  The 1546 - 48.25 level is important support; especially if the bonds start fighting with the tape.

Gun to my had, one should expect consolidation today with earnings dictating much of the trend.

FX & T-Complex
1 hour DX
Currently the DX is lower by 0.40 % to 82.535 with 82.50 as support before last fridays tail low of 82.31 comes into play. If the DX can reach that low crude oil futures as well as the ES should remain more orderly as days where the DX is decisively green the ES gets very funky.

Currently the 30 year bond future is lower 0.08% to 147'06 after trading as low was 146'23 which makes that level the line in sand before 146'18 comes up.

 Over the past 30 minutes the ZB has retrace some 12 ticks straight up, this is largest sustained up move since last Friday's NFP rip, which does have me a bit concerned about upside IF the bidding continues as a break over 147'12 would not be goo for buyers of risk over 1560.

6E 4 hour zom
Japanese yen futures are slightly high this morning after making a fresh low early Tuesday but has since regained support; this likely the reason why crude has remained largely flat since Monday evening.

The euro/usd is stronger through up -0.42% to 1.3064 just under 1.3075 as of this writing; with break out potential over HOD into 1.308 and possible 1.31. A strong 6E is normally good for equities IF bonds cooperate..

Crude Oil
Oil is higher to 93.59 after trading into 93.80 late monday night making this the upside line in sand before the price tests 94; not seen in two weeks.

The lower line in sand to watch for sell stops under is 93.38 with 93 being support from Monday.

If 93 fails you can bet the price will move 50c lower into 92.50; play the 50c breaks of support or resistance as it is usually rewarding if stops are used to catch entries on the breaks.

R1: 1555.50 R1: 2795  R1: 93.80  R1: 934 
R2: 1557.75 R2: 2805  R2: 94  R2: 937 
S1: 1552 S1: 2785  S1: 93.45  S1: 930  
S2: 1549 S2: 2770  S2: 93 S2: 925

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