Monday, January 14, 2013

A look at the natural gas future chart | $NG_F $UNG |

NG_F 15 year - note the volume crescendo 
With 2013 firmly in swing and the buzz once again is focusing on natural gas prices as a warmer than 'normal' winter pull on price analysis. 

When looking at the chart zoomed out you can make a lot more of nat gas trends verses zoomed in minute to minute.

The nature of nat gas is a big mover having regular moves of +or-3% day's clobbering many traders who fail to see the macro trend.  With that being said where might NG be going?

When look at the chart above you should focus on the 15 year support level @ 2 dollars with last year's low being 1.902 on April 19th which coincides with the throws of the commodity correction of spring 2012.  remember.. CL from 103 - 79 in about about a month...
NG_F weekly 
ON the upside you have $4. The last break out over 4 dollars was back in October/November of 2002 as winter storms bore down on the central plains and ice storms nailed the Carolina's helping to fuel NG demand. From this point in 2002 NG traded into 15.652 before falling into $6 support.
Daily NG with volume removed. notice the megaphone pattern off the PINCH lows
The last time NG squeezed it was correlated to the 145+ CL_F run of early 2008 into summer when the financial crisis gripped markets contributing to the massive drop into $4 before failing to 2012 lows.

Now we are back in the 3-4 channel. If the $4 level can be converted to support on draws off the reservoirs as winter rolls on the price has a chance of creating a new channel of $4-5.

IN order for prices to remain on the upward trajectory demands from electrical generation and vehicle fuel will need to continue to increase with or without government incentives.
The move up from the test of $3 and subsequent price action. Notice the violence of price action if you are not zoomed out.