Thursday, November 29, 2012

Last trading day of November tomorrow - what you need to know $ES_F

If you followed our rare trade idea yesterday evening you were rewarded with profits at 1418.
WE are looking for a move over 1408.25 to carry the ES into 1418-20, either tonight or tomorrow. If es fails to move over the metric refer to the above paragraph about what happens under 1399.
The S&P futures have failed 1314 again with 1410 being tested as the evening gets going..... Really makes no logical sense beyond noise creation to sell the sell off the risk complex when no major global markets are open. Globex, you really are something else, a few million bucks can reprice a trillion dollar market overnight. You figure it out.

anyway below 1410 we revisit 1406.50... over 1408.75 we will see 1410, how i trades once we get to 1410 should dictate the next snapshot.

15 min ES.. notice the white dot under the V break under pink support. 
Focus on the red rectangle in the above chart.. Pink line resistance on the 4 hour @ 1412.50
if price can break through red rectangle....... a similar squeeze to last might follow.

Vintage - Futures Trading 101 -

Great old video provided by FooledByRandomness

Wednesday, November 28, 2012

PowerBall Update - $ES_F what comes down must come up?

Did you get your tix? maybe since the guy we voted for did not get elected we will win the lottery. Probably not.

For a more clear background on the charts below.. refer back to last weeks post.

The ES tumbled this morning on decent volume as fiscal cliff worries scared the tape during the opening hours, per usual. Now that the 1400 has been regained and converted slowly to marginal support we have a decent foundation to work from going into month end.

Problem is.. every time we dip below 1399 sellers come out in force, 1383 probably wont hold again if pushed harder as Washington fumbles with budget crisis #2.

WE are looking for a move over 1408.25 to carry the ES into 1418-20, either tonight or tomorrow. If es fails to move over the metric refer to the above paragraph about what happens under 1399.

S&P 500 & Crude Futures look -

under 1395 means tests of tuesday night low of 1350.50 kinda heavy.. will get heavier under 1740 perhaps.... below the Tuesday lows across the risk complex means we break into last weeks up move area.. Tomorrow also is a full moon and month end trading will be ongoing into Friday. Monday is December 3st.    

Oil looks as if right should could break down into 86 of 87.90 fails... over 87.40 could pinch it a bit....

daily ES_F continuous ... note the uptrending megaphone which failed in mid october sending. This subsequently dropped us into 1340... Now we back to the ledge.. could be carving out a Inverse Head and Shoulders here.... note the two dots.. left and head red dashed support
1 hour CL_F H&S.. .. the right shoulder gives out u could see 86 easy.. then 84.50 if that gives out. based on momentum alone.. OR like the past 9 times this month the price may bounce quickly.. 

Friday, November 23, 2012

Black Friday $ES_F Musings "retail jubilation"- $ES_F $GC_F $CL_F

15 min ES
Not much to say other than the risk complex moved higher as a whole Friday amid 'positive early retail sales' jubilation. Gold the most curious mover adding 23 points to reside over 1750. 

Oil added 1.02 percent to break over 88 resistance after breaking up over the 5 min downtrend from thursday at 87.25.

The ES 1400 now is support with 1405 being the ledge for profit taking into 1400 come Sunday.

The 30 bond future is on the ledge @ 150'1 .. below could see a pull back into 148 perhaps.  Ball is in the court of buyers, just gotta see how far they can push it come sunday/monday when full participation returns.
4 hour GC_F - note arrow @ 1750 break out

15 min CL .. note the pinch @ 87.25 

Wednesday, November 21, 2012

A 15 minute look at the front month contract S&P 500 future chart

1380's defended last night despite the Greece headlines.. what dont we already know about Greece...?
Over 1390 should bring 1399.50 test, so on and so forth.  A break under 1384 could means 1370 becomes 15 min support.

15 min ES - focus on white dots and the reaction of price above.

Monday, November 19, 2012

The case of the squeeze - S&P 500 futures update

1 hour ES_F 
Today's action is indicative of the much hated/loved short squeeze. Prior to today's move we had a declining market which for weeks saw the largest company in the world leading the selling of 2-3 percent without any material news beyond broken technicals and herd mentality.

We penned a post a few weeks about asking the question, "does apple lead the market, or does the market lead apple" well today we can safely say apple is up 6.7 percent or 36 points which has pulled the NDX up 2 percent. The slope of today's rise is probably not sustainable though tomorrow we might see some consolidation and a continued move higher, just not with the same umph.

Also noteworthy today is the noticeable lack of volume on this move, which leads me to believe this is some fundamental value buying coupled with timid shorts covering. (Today's volume is highlighted with the red square)

When looking at the S&P 500 futures 30 min chart (below) you can see the pink line is acting as resistance at 1382, over this level could mean a quick move into 1390 and if 1382 is converted to support we could see the ES sitting at the 1400 level come thanksgiving.

30 min ES_F .. note the resistance @ pink line. also notice how we squeezed over the red line this morning and subsequently raced higher.
This is what happens

Friday, November 16, 2012

A preview of Bloomberg's Al Hunt interview with Tim Geithner

Bloomberg Washington editor Al Hunt interviewed Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner on this week's "Political Capital." The finer notes of the talk include -
The fiscal stiff, that a budget deal can be reached within "several weeks," and that the "tone was very good" in today's deficit meeting. 

Thursday, November 15, 2012

The Colbert Report Talks High Frequency Trading

Funny how the word on #HFT is getting out.. Colbert does a good job highlighting the finer points actually....
The Colbert Report Mon - Thurs 11:30pm / 10:30c
High-Frequency Trading
Colbert Report Full Episodes Political Humor & Satire Blog Video Archive

Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Triangular Profits .. Triangular trading in the 21st century

This is what we see happening in the overnight globex market across many different products. Our focus is the CL_F contract at this 10 seconds. My theory is mapped out below... the 'trader' is a algorithmic player using HFT as tool to help increase profits.

1 min Jan CL_F

Tuesday, November 13, 2012

Market Note For Tuesday November 13 - $ES_F

Another day of consolidation or you could say "price paralysis" over the 1370 level with 1363.50 remaining the low so far this week.  We are currently looking for a pop over the 1375 level with a possible conversion into 1390 if 1375 is holds constructively as support in the coming day's and more likely, hours.  under 1370 the ES will become heavier and heavier the longer it moves sideways without breaking lower or higher.
 1 hour ES_F
Under 1363.50 means 1350, much of this will be hinged on bond flows, which did exhibit lower volume today compared to Friday. If bonds keep rising equities will become increasingly easy to push around. In my opinion much of the market is kept aloft by algorithmic schools of program trading fish and not so much real bidders who are accumulating stocks.
15 min ES_F
As capital continues to move out of equities and into bonds the greater the probability for large swings in price because those who are left trading equities are up against very thin bid/asks. The fixed income market is hell of a lot larger than the equities market, yet the equities market is more participated in when looked at on an individual trader standpoint.
30 min CL_F - january
Crude (Jan contract, December rolls in 2 days) remains bullish over 85.50 with a failure of 85 being worst case scenario for long bias. If 85 gets sold we could surely bet equities will follow suit.... 84.57 Tuesday's low.

Headline to headline market. Trade it accordingly.

A Three Year Graphical Journey along the $ZB_F Chart

The below chart is worth a 1000 words, and in this case trillions of dollars. Should we be betting on a 'fiscal cliff' driven rally in bond prices, driving rates to record low levels in the next 5 weeks? Perhaps pushing the 30 year bond into 160? Note the annotations prefixing each rally and break into new high price and low rate territory..
weekly ZB_F
Monthly ZB_F 

Monday, November 12, 2012

Market Note for Monday November 12 - $CL_F $ES_F $GC_F

30 min ES - note the rising support from Friday's low....Still feels heavy
5 min ES
Consolidation day. Market may be waiting for a catalyst as volume today was very much below average. Currently the S&P 500 is down 4.75 points or 0.34 percent to 1373.50 after failing to hold support at 1375.

Below 1373.75 means 1370 with could convert into last week lows of 1363.50 before finding any sort of persistent bid.

1 min GC_F

 Precious and semi precious metals are weak again this early evening, copper down half a percent as is gold after failing 1725 support with 1712 acting as the next level of congestion if 1720 fails.

 Copper on the other hand 3.40 remains support.
1 hour HG_F - *notice the pattern within the downtrending channel 
30 min GC_F
Crude oil fell through 85.40 support which was pretty much in line with the rest of the complex de-risking the last hour or so.

85.27 is the floor session low for front month CL, thus watch for a push of sell stops below this area perhaps into 84.55.

Sunday, November 11, 2012

Copper Weak this Sunday Evening - $HG_F

5 min HG - 
Front month copper is down against 4hour support at which was tested Friday @ 3.4 and held. The low which this uptrend illustrated below starts to incline from is 3.2385 which coincides with the extreme weakness we saw across the commodity complex in late spring 2012.

white ovals are highlighting the pattern - 30 min HG
Monthly HG... volume building over last 6 years, resistance over 4 still has held.... 
The pattern on the 30 min chart shows many buy squeezes up into almost a pinch then aggressively sold. Seems to be the nature with copper... My guess 3.4 holds and we pivot up slowly, if it fails.. we see 3.20.
4 hour HG - white ovals indicate test of support 

Friday, November 9, 2012


During the past five weeks a commonality between Apple and the greater market has been general headline* UNrelated weakness....... Question is.... Did we put the horse behind the cart? In other words did the market lead Apple lower or did the market followApple lower?

4hour AAPL
 In my humble non-scientific opinion they both led each other lower through a self fulfilling prophecy of "if Apple is weak the market must be a sell" a echo chamber....

 In a day in age where the entire market is tied together via ETF's and other instruments which drive up correlations to record levels the indexing of high cap stocks create systemic problems.

1 hour - note the white dot(s)
Due to Apple's large weighting within the indexes, especially the NDX and SPX it's weakness caused a vacuum within the market which many different ETF's mirrored and added vacuum to the already strong force of the psychology behind a market leading stock dropping 3% day after day. The vacuum never stops, just works in reverse pushing stock prices up as quickly as they fall.....

This positive and negative vacuum action exaggerates the sine wave like manic price action we have come to know.

Perhaps Apple would not have fallen as quickly as it did if it were not for all the extraneous factors affecting its price beyond investor A wanting to sell to investor B.....
Weekly AAPL.. notice what resides under 540-500 (air)
The charts above and below are of Apple in many different time intervals... What i want you to focus on is is the 540 level and the support which has been built at this level going back to march and june of 2011 (white ovals) Also make note of the December 20012 resistance at 400 a share.. this level gave way to almost 205 points of upside... LOTS of funds i am sure are long from this area and will be in a position to protect profits as this level approaches.... Of course this level is only a concern if the 540 level fails into 500.....
4 hour ZOOM 

Thursday, November 8, 2012

The 1300 level in the $ES_F is worth a gander -

1300 is uptrending support from the March 2009 lows in the S&P 500 futures of 665.75... A test of the 1300 level will test uptrending support as well as probe summer 2012 support and December 2011 resistance turned support for the first time 4 months or 11 months respectively.

Below 1300 means trouble lot of air for right back to 1250-1200.....
Daily ES_F
Weekly ES_F - note the uptrend from 2009 lows and the white dot @ the intersection of 1300 support from summer of 2012 and uptrend from 2009.

We were wrong about bonds (as of right now) as the 30 year crossed 150

4 hour ZB_F (click for larger) notice break out
The bond flow is unstoppable. It seemed the flow had relented last week after the final day of october following the sandy crisis came and went..., nonetheless flows have picked back up following the foregone conclusion Tuesday.

The S&P 500 dropped another 1.10 percent today as bonds rallied higher into the close of regular trading. Either this is a blow off top or we are going to see 1350 before we know it, as easy as tomorrow if 1370 does not hold. The futures as of this writing are nearly unchanged with the aud/jpy still feeling heavy.

 --- reverse the steps we took to get up to 1450 to find your way to the bottom.....  1300 has many intersecting long term trend lines thus fortifying the foundation of the level.

Daily ZB_F - over the 150'33 level the 2012 high.. will surely push the
equity indexed onto their backs

Wednesday, November 7, 2012

What is next? Stagnant growth and inflation? tick tock

1 hour CL - note the upside down
horseshoe pattern 
The forgone conclusion has come and gone. Clearly the markets are unhappy as they plunged the most in a year on "German PMI". my ass.

The levels which were broken today damaged the charts technically. With the floor being 1384 in the front month contract of the S&P futures, immediate support is @ the 1390 level.  IMO 1390 has become the new 1410 for the time being.... Trade snap shots, do not bet what this market do from week to week.. no one knows.... well someone knows, just not us.  
30 min SPX
Daily SPX
Lets hope our leader puts his ass in gear and gets some things accomplished.. just do SOMETHING besides increasing government. Throw the private sector a fucking bone between your hip hop parties and golf rounds.

Mark Faber: “Mr. Obama is a disaster for business and a disaster for the United States”

Faber also said “I doubt [Obama] will stay at the presidency for another four years. I think there will be so many scandals” and that investors should “buy themselves a machine gun.”
On where he sees the equity markets given Obama’s reelection:
“You have offsetting factors. The problem with Mr. Obama is that you get more regulation and it’s disincentive for businessmen to hire people. You probably also get higher taxes, so in terms of the economy, he is very negative in my view. But you still have Mr. Bernanke, and you still have because of money printing very high corporate earnings. They are now coming down, but they are still at the elevated level. You have money printing supporting the market and on the other hand, you have an economic slowdown globally which will affect earnings negatively. It is difficult to tell where the market will go because we have so much manipulation. I think, minimum, it will drop 20%.”


On whether he sees the U.S. in recession in 2013:
 “Yes, I think that if the figures were compiled properly. If nominal GDP was adjusted by a proper price deflator, we would probably already be in recession…But I would like to point out one thing about the economy. GDP is not a very relevant figure. It consists of many different sectors of the economy, so you can have some sectors that are improving like housing and others that are worsening.”
On his dollar and euro positions:
  “This is the choice in life. You choose what is less bad. I don't particularly like Mr. Obama, but I think he is less bad for the world than Mr. Romney. It is a tragedy of life that both candidates did not lose the election. They would have deserved both to lose.”

Post election S&P500 futures Daily chart look - $ES_F $GC_F

The white oval has held @ the 1400 level...rising support turned resistance is @ 1450 (dotted purple line) with 1468 remaining as the high for 2012.

Gold futures have taken out 1720 resistance and converted the level to marginal support. if we can get 1430 to trade and hold we will be well on the way to building a foundation for a move into 1450.. though we really need bonds to fall off and the keynesians bid to come back into the market for this to happen...
Daily ES_F .. 
Gold Daily... 

Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Gold futures ripping higher as Obama picks up steam $GC_F

1720.90 resistance broke on a rush of buying .. 1750 target. if he wins.. .
1hr GC

Crude Oil Futures Surge higher over 3.5 percent on Election Day

No need to artificially keep the price of oil down anymore if you are trying to get re-elected president today right? Well crude oil futures surged over their resistance at 87 to push into 88.04. The 85 level we spoke about last week did indeed hold.

1 min CL
1hour min CL 
Weekly CL  
30 min CL

Election day 2012 S&P 500 Futures Chart - $ES_F

Well magically we rise over 1 percent today on the day our country picks a new* leader... The 1400 level had yet to be closed under by the time this morning rolled into the picture, this strength at support converted into the rise we are seeing today as shorts covered ahead of election into 1430.

The resistance level i am watching is 1431.50 which is last friday's high of day.. anything under this level means the ES could easily give back much of the steep gains based on the slope of the rise. IF this level can trade and convert to support we could be looking at 1440's by the end of the session considering the strength in crude oil the hast hour, now up 3.35 percent to 88.50.

1 hour ES
5 min ES

Monday, November 5, 2012

Bonds rally as tomorrow's US election approaches. $ZB_F Chart

Dovetailing from last weeks post--.. the magnetic 149 level again is the focus as the price of the 30 year bond breaks up out of a pennant formation on lackluster volume... The sharp drop following the Friday jobs number looks to have provided a buying opportunity for those parties who slammed bids via HFT induced means. Congrats.

30 min  
4 hour zoom 

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