Friday, March 30, 2012

RIMM takes out Day highs

As the short squeeze ensues RIMM takes out the 14.50 level as highlighted in stockmonster earlier today.. the 15 level is a big technical and psychological level.

1 min RIMM showing the ascending triangle break out over 14.50 

Apple 1 min Chart For Friday

Apple closed the 598 gap from Monday 3/26's Pinch higher into 607 -
15 min AAPL - gap is the grey rectangle
Pretty simple below 602 selling pressure will mount. over 604 buying pressure
aapl 1 min

Thursday, March 29, 2012

Light Sweet Look For Thursday Evening

pressure -
5 min CL 

Ant Eater Formation - Euro / US Futures

Reverse ant eater formation (Bullish)
ant eater - blown out pivot formation. (bearish)

Daily look at Gold - Futures

This post continues a theme from late 2011 -

looking for a test of 1602. then we decide.. will red uptrend hold firm or fail into 1550?
daily GC 

3/27 Opening Gap closed in Apple

Monday 4/2/2012 update below -
15 min AAPL
This morning @ 607.23 -
15 min AAPL

Tuesday, March 27, 2012

5min & hourly Crude Oil Futures Update

my 105.06 trades. pretty close to my 105 target from last night - 

5 min CL
1 hour CL 
After a roller coaster session tuesday CL price continues to mount pressure over 106.70... below 106.70 we could easily see 106.50 down to 105 - my target if 106.50 fails.. if 106.70 does indeed hold a push into 107 and squeeze over could bring 107.50+ converting into 108 - upper channel limit in the 1hour chart above.

pretty simple-

Tuesday afternoon Crapple Update

Despite the last hour vomit comet what happend last week in AAPL still is higher by nearly 25 points. my hunch was partially correct.. what we saw last week was games to shake the tree and take YOUR shares before a move higher.
30 min AAPL. notice the RED x's where the tails first manifested... then the the FRIDAY tail.. preceded the PINCH into 616
aapl 1 min 


Monday, March 26, 2012

Monday afternoon S&P500 thoughts and Charts

Updated post close - 1414.5 traded.. nice rally into the close. the 15 min chart below followed my arrow.
5 min ES
30 min ES_F
we got the pinch over 1392.50 as i highlighted FRIDAY converted into 1395 which converted into 1407.50. once again a chart pattern coincides with an outside catalyst in the market. (Bernanke hinting at further QE this morning) .. over 1407 we go to highs for 2012 june contract of 1408.  Chart from earlier this afternoon below the jump

Thursday, March 22, 2012

Post Thursday close S&P500 futures look

Refer to below for my thoughts on Oil (played out 100%) and ES pinch, which did indeed play out

Friday march 23 ES_F.

5 min zoom ES march 22

Welp Thursday was another roller coaster day with many historical correlations loosening, biggest being the DX/6E relationship with equities following China's tepid PMI. Bonds really did not do much today basically holding onto Wednesday's gains.

Bonds still do look weak in my opinion as money continues to flow into equities and out of bonds, slowly that is.

Commodity markets were  roiled by China as you know, crude moving around willy nilly, new support is 104.50 and resistance 106. Over 106 we get 107.50 below 105 we test 104.50 then lower. Risk on and risk off.

As for the the ES, we have been minding a downtrend from wednesday mornings high into the pre market ledge of 1397 when China PMI broke. below 1382.5 clearly we have air down into 1380. The pivot i am watching is 1392.25, which if fails will turn into a pinch into higher prices of 1395. keep it simple.

5 min zoomed out ES

Wednesday, March 21, 2012

1 hour Nasdaq Futures CHART

1hour NQ

Tuesday, March 20, 2012

1402 - Pending *no longer- S&P future

Good evening - 1405 on deck -
15 min ES
Morning update here: -- 1401.50 traded. 1402 pending...
5 min ES

Record closing price - Tuesday Afternoon Apple Look

record closing price = 605.96 - 
1 min AAPL
1 min zoom

Tuesday afternoon S&P500 Futures look

Over 1398 - target 1402 - below 1396.. back to 1394.5
1 min ES

Crude & Apple Correlated again

sky net created this by accident.. of course. Only commonality between these two products in HFT arbitrage and the fact they both affect the S&P500
CL / AAPL 1 min charts

Tuesday Morning Crude Look

under 107.50 is a zone of air, .50 broke though saw a buyer step back in. firm price action so far. though euro weakness/dollar strength will be the driving force beyond crude today IMO.
A trade over 107.85 or so could convert into 108's and higher if DX can fall off a bit.. always better to have  weak dollar at CL's back.. if your long anyway.
30 min CL 
5 min CL

Monday, March 19, 2012

Last hour S&P500 Futures Look

Mid Monday S&P500 Futures Look

5 min ES
1400 regained converted into a test of 1401 which converted into 1403.75 which could mean 1405. Bonds again falling out of bed.. capital going into equities. as highlighted last week.
1min ES

'Pinched' Crude - Continues higher Monday Morning

Update showing rising triangle break out over 108. simple  -
5 min CL
Over 108 will bring in buyers and force some covering, perhaps into 110.  Or if 108 fails 107.50 is immediate support followed by 107.20.. below 107 -107.20 is a lot of air into 106.60 .. which this level was Friday's 'pinch'.
5 min CL

Friday, March 16, 2012

Light Sweet Crude has "pinched' itself into a new trend

Resistance of 106.50 failed to contain the buying today in CL which caused a flurry of buy stops to be triggered above the downtrending channel formed of the last two weeks. You can see in the charts below how the 'pinch' started. the Lines are you roadmap, you must find the best rout. looking for 110+ in near week.
5 min CL

4 hour zoom CL - note the channel breach to upside. 

Friday's 1 hour S&P Futures look

The S&P500 futures failed to hold 1400, though are above 1 hour trend support. At this current 30 seconds in time the SPX & RUT are both playing catch up to the NDX; i.e. the SPX made a new 2012 and 3 year high today the NDX remained under yesterday's highs. The RUT closed within a point of multi year highs.
1 hour ES 
It does indeed appear 1400+ will be probed into next week as momentum stocks ease up a bit and large cap components start doing leg work. 

Thursday, March 15, 2012

Today's Apple Chart -

1 min AAPL - NOTE the large AH print of 700K+ shares bought
Staying under the downtrend line, simply drawn from morning high straight down into AH lows.
5 min AAPL

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

A look at the 30 year Bond

1 hour ZB

The 140 level in ZB gave way with conviction, the auction today at 1 really did not help the equation.

Equity markets largely ignored the dollars strength today. though did succumbed to the 81 level later int he session as apple stumbled. I my opinion this dollar rally do not have much more legs left..

Daily ZB

Either equities break down ( i think not) or the EURO bounces adding a bid at the back of equities.... it is down from 1.348 to 1.303 in two weeks, all on the heels of a strengthening greece picture/europe picture.

Yes Greece is still in the hole, but they are a hell of a lot more stable than they were three months ago.

You tell me what is going on her? me thinks cash slowly moving out of bonds, into equities.. THOUGH the strength of the dollar is causing arbitragers to sell the index's, almost canceling out the fresh money coming out of bonds into equities... Or we see dollar  rise and equities stay bid, i doubt it happens..

Last time the DX was at 81, crude was actually LOWER at 102.20. the proverbial rubber band is stretched beyond comprehension

Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Russell 2000 - small cap

Previous RUT set up ----- Today below.
4 hour RUT 

A look at the VIX - 15min and Daily chart-

15 min VIX. post spike 
VIX has popped here in the minutes before FOMC some 8 percent into 16.02. Some big player is buying puts.
15 min VIX

Yesterday with the VIX down as much as it was... it was screaming risk on. Well, today. we have risk on. NQ up over 1 percent.

VIX broke below the 15 level for first time in 5 years, interesting indeed, the bounce off 13.99 lows is ever more interesting, but this pattern has repeated itself. (chart on left)

The historical VIX's rise started in January of 2008, from that point on VIX has trended higher and maintained the 15 level. today the table turned.


Tuesday Morning S&P500 Futures look

Channel break out over 1375.75 converted into a trade of 1378. QQQ followed along up over 1 percent currently..strong commodity reversal. Markets were playing possum. Same pattern different day. 
5 min ES
New channel - 1371.50 - 1375.75 - above 75's we break higher.. below 71's we test 70's. Euro is curiously weak against the greenback, putting the kabash on upside for the moment.  Commodities are higher bolstered by positive data out of Germany, Copper nearing the 3.9 level; on it's way to 4.
5 min ES
1 hour ES 

Monday, March 12, 2012

Monday Night Light Sweet Oil Futures Look

CL 15 min - 107 was the ledge from sunday evening. regaining this ledge presents a more bullish picture for Tuesday. 

1370 Trades & Nasdaq Makes a 2012 High - S&P Futures Chart

15 min ES
The 1368-1360 channel as been breached.. to the upside, i spoke about this morning....

The Euro is seeing strength against the greenback moving closer to my 1.32 idea from earlier today.

The June S&P future contract is trading at 1375.25 ahead of tomorrow's FOMC at 2:15pm ET, rates expected to remain @ .25%.

The NQ's are off into new 2012 highs of 2659.75

4 hour NQ futures. 

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