Monday, August 8, 2011

VIX Volatility Update Post 2011 Crash (VXX)

The VIX has not since early 2009 posted TWO weeks of NEW HIGHS.. today high was 48.. last weeks high was 39.25. Like DR J said on Kudlow tonight the implied vol of OTM puts was up over 100 today which was in line with the over 6% drop in the index.. THOUGH the VIX ONLY moved to 48.

Notice the pattern at which the vix trades, it is a very psychologically challenging in regards to the formation of this pattern.. Period of panic and running for the hills because (green bars) of the 'unknown' followed MOST of the time by a steep decline in the price (red bars). What makes past weeks different going back to the first few eeks of 2009 where the vix spike up to the high 50s level.

The price action today did not show any signs of a bottoming pattern except for random spurts of violent buying on peculiarly low volume. The machines are def making our markets really move quickly though the fact remains there are real sellers. If we do not get some QE talks from the fed it seems based on the VIX conviction and psychology protection is being bought because traders do truly believe they need it.

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