TFP Morning Letter for February 11, 2013

 
5 min ES. note the 1515 level

Overnight Musings

The futures looked pretty awful @ 1 am, and now…. they look stable with crude making a new high over 97.40 while the ES @1512, down .75 points.   Support in the ES from overnight is @ 1508.75h with 1510  being the line in sand off the open.

The ES upside line is 1515 over this level as we mentioned last night will surely mean a test of 1517 is in the cards. A break under 1508 means a move back to 1505.

After essentially moving sideways all night/morning, nasdaq futures are lower by 3 points to 2767.50 which puts support at 2764.50 and resistance 2774. A break under or above this channel should help dictate the next leg of a trade.

30 year bond futre 30 min.. 

Much of the driver behind the tape last evening/night and this morning is/was the DX which pushed over the 80.50 level in the early hours of this morning before it fell from 80.59 high to 80.235 low.

As the DX bid higher equities became shakier and shakier up until around 4 am CT when the long bond (30 year) fell off highs into lows of 143’13. Look for this 143 level to be firm support if the price gets down into the level off the open.

Commodities

Crude oil futures have 100% reversed from their overnight lows of 96.66 to trade 97.60 where they sit currently +.50%. This means 97 is now immediate support with 98.10 as a magnet over 97.55, under 95.55 means 97 test then back to 96.50-.60 launchpad.

5 min CL. note the 96.65 support 

Precious metal futures also did a about face maneuver with silver falling to -.50% @ 30.58 then raced higher to test 30.99. Gold futures fell to 1639.50 which is funny because 1640 i mentioned as the line in sand , so so it makes perfect sense GC traded 1639.50 then ripped back to 1651 in a similar fashion to SI.

Nat gas futures are bid +.57% @ 3.20 after taking out the 3.30 level to trade into 3.315 with support at 3.28 and resistance 3.32.

GC 30 min. note the 1640 level

Keep in mind…WEAKNESS in the YEN is also helping to fuel this commodity move higher .

Currently gold is lower by 1.50 points @ 1647.60. Over the HOD = squeeze, under LOD = pinch lower. Copper futures are higher by .50% to 3.7415 with resistance @ 3.75 and suport 3.73. Watch FCX off the open as it typically likes a strong copper tape.

Stocks

Shares of coca-Cola are lower to 38.45 after reporting soft numbers this morning. Watch it for a push under 38.40 into 38.20 or a pop into 39 if it moves over 38.80.

Shares of Amazon are higher to 260.30 after closing @ 257.21. Look for 262.50 as first resistance which needs to be converted to support before before 265 becomes a target.

Shares of McGraw-Hill are lower as the (continuing) S&P ratings scandal and a soft-ish EPS weigh on its tape. 43.55 is support under means 43 or so.

BBRY regained the 15150level pre market after dipping below.this means 15.15 the line in sand for buyers.. over r16 would be a nice reversal from yesterdays weakness.

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