TFP market summary for Tuesday February 5, 2013

ES 5 min 

Amid reports of a ‘earnings rally‘ the S&P 500 SPX closed +1.04% or 15.58pts @ 1511.29 after trading into a new 2013 high of 1514.96. Per the TFP morning letter:

“Our look for Tuesday when taking into account the positive overnight currency trends as well as the current bond weakness the ES could see 1505 in the first hour if 1500 can be converted to support with
conviction. “

ES 15 min 

Taking into account our morning ES take, the likely explanation for today’s ‘rally’ is the aforementioned bond & yen weakness proving fuel for the conversion of 1500 into support within the first hour.

Currently support in the spooz is 1505 with resistance into 1508, any trades over 1508 means 1511 is likely to be tested overnight. Under 1505 its 1500.75 support.

When looking @ the NQ_F per the the TFP morning letter the 2712 level held as support off the open and converted into a nearly 40 handle winner if you leaned on 2712 as 2759.25 printed for the high. NQ resistance still remains 2760 with support at 2745 if the 2750 level gives way tonight with 2734 being the line in sand.

RUT resistance remains @ 910 with 905 being support, but under 903 there is a gap down into 899.60

NQ 5 min showing 2712 support

The 30 year bond future saw pressure all the way into 142’22 before pressure came off as the ES traded over 1510 into the 1511 high of session in the last hour. *1511 is the new 2013 high for the spoo.  Currently 143 is resistance in the 30 year and 142’19 is support if Tuesday’s session low fails to hold.

When looking at individual stocks we had the strength of Apple’s boiler pushing at the back of the NDX train which closed higher by 1.45% or 39.31 points @ 2754.99.

Apple shares closed higher by 15.528 points or 3.51% @ 457.844. Resistance in Apple remains @ 460 support 450. If apple can climb over 460 intra day tomorrow it has a good chance of building a new base over 450 instead of creating uncertainty over 450.

Shares of BBRY (previously RIMM) moved higher by 6% amid reports of record orders for the company’s new Blackberry 10 phones. Our idea this morning:

Shares of BBRY are higher to 15.89 after the company received a positive response to its new blackberry 10 devices in the UK.  A break over 16 could covert into 17.38 resistance, 15 support.

BBRY shares traded sharply through 16 off the open into 16.89 before settling back to 16 support, shares closed @ 16.02 +6.99% .

In the crude 5 min chart on the right you should focus on the wedge/pennat where the price is @ the apex of wedge. CL support is @ 96.60 and resistance 96.70..

A break under 96.60 means 96.20, over 96.70 a squeeze back to 97 could push some of the sellers from this morning to cover into 97.

Easy trades that pay the bills. Base hits can add up to a winning game more times than not.


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