TFP market summary for Thursday February 14, 2013

15 min ES_F 

The market gods provided you with a interesting session for this commercial holiday of V-day. What made today interesting?

The fact we had bonds dollar equities and crude all higher on the session, the SPX closed on a new 5 year high of 1521.38.
ES settled around 1518 after trading into 1520.75. 1522 is the 2013 high.

Absent from today? a crush of equities despite a nearly 1% move in bonds up from their early Thursday morning lows.

ZB 15 min 

The fed is doing their dance in a non-sterilized fashion, ie doing outright purchases of bonds on the open market which explains the nonstop strength in in the med-long bonds throughout the entire session up into the 30 year auction and after.

Currently the spooz is offered with support @ 1516.50, though we have a strengthening YEH pushing down on risk… specifically metals precious and non precious… 1631 is GC line in sand… under its 1622

4 hour GC .. note the white box

I am not a PM so really bonds are just a tool in my contextual toolbox, the moves are so large in bonds without a account the size of ben bernanke’s you cannot hold a positive of any size without fear of waking up to a margin call the size of the UUS Ronald Reagan.

As for tomorrow.. if yen keeps rising and the 30 year moves back of 143’21 equities will *likely fall back to 1510 which was support this morning. Under 10′s its 5′s then double zero’s then 1490.25 …

Under 1490.25 we correct to 78′s. Things will get live real quick. The froth this past two weeks has been absurd.


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